August 23, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Mets vs Braves: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 23)

Last updated: August 23, 2025

Game Time: 8/23, 07:15PM

Game Preview

The New York Mets head to Atlanta to face the Braves in a pivotal divisional matchup. DraftKings lists the Mets as a -131 favorite, with the Braves as +108 underdogs. Notably, 75% of the betting public is backing the Mets, indicating a strong lean towards the away team.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Clay Holmes vs Cal Quantrill

Clay Holmes (NYM):

Holmes brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with a sinker (40% usage, 93.7 mph), sweeper (19% usage, 81.8 mph), changeup (15% usage, 88.1 mph), slider (11% usage, 85.3 mph), cutter (8% usage, 89.7 mph), and a four-seam fastball (6% usage, 93.2 mph). Holmes is a pitch-mix artist with a strong emphasis on ground-ball inducing pitches like the sinker.

The Braves lineup averages .249 this season with a projected xBA of .257 against Holmes' mix, which could present challenges given his ground-ball tendencies.

Cal Quantrill (ATL):

Quantrill's repertoire includes a cutter (22% usage, 88.9 mph), four-seam fastball (21% usage, 93.6 mph), splitter (20% usage, 86.4 mph), sinker (16% usage, 93.7 mph), curveball (12% usage, 79.9 mph), slider (9% usage, 84.9 mph), and changeup (0% usage, 87.7 mph). His style leans towards a varied approach, relying on movement and deception.

The Mets lineup averages .244 this season but projects to a .254 xBA against Quantrill’s arsenal, suggesting they might find some success against his pitch variety.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Mets vs Cal Quantrill:

The Mets lineup averages .244 this season but projects to .254 against Quantrill's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Juan Soto: Season BA .247 → xBA vs arsenal .332 (+85 points), Season K% 19.9% → Arsenal K% 16.8% (-3.1%)
Biggest Decrease: Mark Vientos: Season BA .233 → xBA vs arsenal .205 (-28 points), Season K% 22.4% → Arsenal K% 33.3% (+10.9%)

For Braves vs Clay Holmes:

The Braves lineup averages .249 this season and projects to .257 against Holmes' arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Ozzie Albies: Season BA .229 → xBA vs arsenal .269 (+40 points), Season K% 15.6% → Arsenal K% 11.1% (-4.5%)
Biggest Decrease: Nick Allen: Season BA .225 → xBA vs arsenal .175 (-50 points), Season K% 23.6% → Arsenal K% 35.0% (+11.4%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Mets' projected K-rate is 21.8% vs Quantrill — up 1.1% from their 20.7% season average.
The Braves' projected K-rate is 21.2% vs Holmes — up 0.7% from their 20.5% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Juan Soto (.247 → .332, +85 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold for strikeout props in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Juan Soto is a standout batter in this matchup, significantly outperforming his season averages against Quantrill’s arsenal.
Clay Holmes and Cal Quantrill both have moderate increases in opposing team strikeout rates, though not enough to suggest a strong K prop.
Umpire assignment is TBA, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Despite the lack of clear pitching prop edges, Juan Soto's offensive potential provides a valuable betting angle.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the NYM vs ATL game? A: Juan Soto meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA of .332, significantly up from his season BA.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, leaving the impact on the game uncertain.

Q: What time is the NYM vs ATL game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/23 at 07:15PM.

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