August 23, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Jays vs Marlins: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 23)

Last updated: August 23, 2025

Game Time: 8/23, 04:10PM

Game Overview

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to face the Miami Marlins in a matchup that sees the Jays favored at -144 on DraftKings, while the Marlins sit as +118 underdogs. Despite the odds, 54% of the money is currently backing the Marlins. This game promises to be intriguing with significant implications for both teams as they continue their playoff pushes.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: José Berríos vs Janson Junk

José Berríos (TOR):

Sinker (32% usage, 92.1 mph), Slurve (27% usage, 82.5 mph), Four-Seam (19% usage, 93.0 mph), Changeup (17% usage, 85.3 mph), Cutter (6% usage, 89.5 mph)

José Berríos is a pitcher who relies on a diverse pitch mix to keep batters guessing. His "velocity-heavy" approach is complemented by a slurve and changeup that disrupt timing. The Marlins lineup averages .278 this season but has a projected xBA of .277 against Berríos' arsenal.

Janson Junk (MIA):

Four-Seam (37% usage, 93.6 mph), Slider (27% usage, 86.8 mph), Sweeper (17% usage, 82.1 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 82.3 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 88.3 mph)

Janson Junk is another velocity-focused pitcher, with a reliance on a hard four-seam fastball and slider combination. The Blue Jays lineup, which typically hits at a .275 average, is projected to bat .267 against Junk's offerings.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Blue Jays vs Janson Junk:

The Blue Jays lineup averages .275 this season but projects to .267 against Junk's arsenal.
Biggest increase: Andrés Giménez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .275 (+25 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 17.1% (-5.4%)
Biggest decrease: Ernie Clement: Season BA .279 → xBA vs arsenal .250 (-29 points), Season K% 11.3% → Arsenal K% 12.6% (+1.3%)

For the Marlins vs José Berríos:

The Marlins lineup averages .290 this season but projects to .277 against Berríos' arsenal.
Biggest increase: Agustín Ramírez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .308 (+58 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 11.0% (-11.5%)
Biggest decrease: Xavier Edwards: Season BA .302 → xBA vs arsenal .258 (-44 points), Season K% 13.3% → Arsenal K% 9.2% (-4.1%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 19.2% vs Janson Junk — up 2.1% from their 17.1% season average.
The Marlins' projected K-rate is 14.6% vs José Berríos — down 1.4% from their 16.0% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: TBA Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Agustín Ramírez (.250 → .308, +58 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup for pitcher strikeout props.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Agustín Ramírez shows a strong advantage against Berríos, making him a key player to watch.
No significant pitcher prop opportunities due to low strikeout rate projections.
Umpire assignment is unknown, adding uncertainty to betting outcomes.
The Blue Jays are favored, but public money favors the Marlins, indicating potential value.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the TOR vs MIA game? A: Agustín Ramírez (.250 → .308, +58 points) meets our strict betting criteria.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, making this unclear.

Q: What time is the TOR vs MIA game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/23, 04:10PM.

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