August 22, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Jays vs Marlins: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 22)

Last updated: August 22, 2025

Game Time: 8/22, 07:10PM

Today's Setup

Tonight, the Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Miami Marlins in a game that sees the Jays as the favorites. According to DraftKings, Toronto is a -169 favorite with Miami as a +138 underdog. An overwhelming 92% of the money is backing the Blue Jays, setting the stage for a high-stakes matchup.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Shane Bieber (TOR) vs Ryan Gusto (MIA)

Shane Bieber (TOR):

Shane Bieber brings a mixed arsenal to the mound, which makes him a versatile threat against hitters. The Miami lineup averages .250 this season with a projected xBA of .250 against Bieber's diverse pitch offerings. His ability to mix pitches effectively helps in keeping hitters off balance.

Ryan Gusto (MIA):

Ryan Gusto features a varied array of pitches, such as:

Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 94.1 mph)
Curveball (15% usage, 80.5 mph)
Cutter (10% usage, 89.1 mph)
Sinker (10% usage, 93.6 mph)
Changeup (9% usage, 87.5 mph)
Sweeper (9% usage, 82.3 mph)
Slider (1% usage, 83.5 mph)

The Toronto lineup averages .275 this season but projects to .279 against Gusto's arsenal, indicating a slight edge for the Blue Jays.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Toronto vs Ryan Gusto:

The Toronto lineup averages .275 this season but projects to .279 against Gusto's arsenal.
Jr. Guerrero: Season BA .298 → xBA vs arsenal .327 (+29 points), Season K% 14.1% → Arsenal K% 15.5% (+1.4%)

For Miami vs Shane Bieber:

The Miami lineup's performance remains consistent with a .250 average, aligning with Bieber's projected xBA.

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

For Toronto:

The team's projected K-rate is 17.9% vs Ryan Gusto — up 0.8% from their 17.1% season average. This marginal increase suggests minimal impact on potential strikeout props.

For Miami:

The Marlins' projected K-rate is 22.5% against Shane Bieber, consistent with their season average, offering no significant strikeout opportunities.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jr. Guerrero (.298 → .327, +29 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold for strikeout props in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Jr. Guerrero shows a favorable matchup against Gusto, meeting our betting lean criteria with a substantial projected xBA increase.
No pitcher prop opportunities were evident due to stable strikeout rates.
Umpire impact is undetermined, adding an element of unpredictability.
With Toronto heavily favored, bettors should consider the potential for offensive production from key lineup members.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Jays vs Marlins game? A: Jr. Guerrero meets our strict betting criteria with a substantial xBA increase against Ryan Gusto.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, leaving this aspect uncertain.

Q: What time is the Jays vs Marlins game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/22, 07:10PM.

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---