August 23, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Giants vs Brewers: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 23)

Last updated: August 23, 2025

Game Time: 8/23, 07:10PM

Today's Setup

The San Francisco Giants travel to Milwaukee to face the Brewers in a matchup heavily tilted by betting odds. DraftKings lists the Milwaukee Brewers as a -136 favorite, with the San Francisco Giants as a +112 underdog. An overwhelming 84% of the money is backing the Brewers, highlighting the betting community's confidence in the home team.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Logan Webb vs Freddy Peralta

Logan Webb (SF):

Arsenal: Sinker (35% usage, 92.6 mph), Sweeper (26% usage, 84.7 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 86.6 mph), Cutter (8% usage, 91.0 mph), Four-Seam (7% usage, 92.8 mph)
Style: Webb is a pitch-mix artist, relying on a diverse set of pitches to keep hitters off balance.
Matchup Insight: The Milwaukee lineup averages .262 this season but projects a .241 xBA against Webb's crafty arsenal, indicating reduced effectiveness.

Freddy Peralta (MIL):

Arsenal: Four-Seam (55% usage, 94.9 mph), Changeup (20% usage, 89.1 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 79.5 mph), Slider (9% usage, 84.1 mph)
Style: Velocity-heavy with a dominant four-seam fastball, Peralta challenges hitters with his high-speed pitches.
Matchup Insight: The Giants lineup averages .252 this season but projects a .239 xBA against Peralta's high-velocity offerings, suggesting a tougher outing.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For SF vs Freddy Peralta:

The Giants lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .239 vs Peralta's arsenal.
Biggest Decrease: Dominic Smith: Season BA .303 → xBA vs arsenal .248 (-55 points), Season K% 19.7% → Arsenal K% 24.6% (+4.9%)

For MIL vs Logan Webb:

The Brewers lineup averages .262 this season but projects to .241 vs Webb's arsenal.
Biggest Decrease: Sal Frelick: Season BA .300 → xBA vs arsenal .237 (-63 points), Season K% 13.0% → Arsenal K% 14.9% (+1.9%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Giants' Projected K-rate: 26.2% vs Freddy Peralta — up 3.0% from their 23.2% season average.
Brewers' Projected K-rate: 20.2% vs Logan Webb — down 0.5% from their 20.7% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

No individual batters from either team meet the strict batting lean criteria of xBA > 0.300 and a boost > +20 points.
⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Giants' K-rate jumps to 26.2% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Dominic Smith and Sal Frelick face significant disadvantages against opposing arsenals.
Freddy Peralta presents a strong strikeout opportunity given the Giants' elevated projected K-rate.
Umpire assignment remains unannounced, adding uncertainty to in-game prop bets.
Overall, the betting lines favor Milwaukee, supported by a high volume of public money.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Giants vs Brewers game? A: No players meet our strict betting criteria for a batting prop.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, which makes it challenging to assess tendencies.

Q: What time is the Giants vs Brewers game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/23 at 07:10PM.

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