August 23, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Dodgers vs Padres: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 23)

Last updated: August 23, 2025

Game Time: 8/23, 08:40PM

Matchup Setup

The Los Angeles Dodgers face off against the San Diego Padres in a thrilling NL West showdown. The Dodgers, favored at -144 according to DraftKings, have 82% of the money backing them, reflecting strong public confidence. The Padres, listed as +119 underdogs, will look to upset behind their home-field advantage.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Tyler Glasnow vs Nestor Cortes

Tyler Glasnow (LAD):

Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 95.9 mph), Slider (23% usage, 89.5 mph), Curveball (20% usage, 82.5 mph), Sinker (18% usage, 96.3 mph)

Glasnow is a velocity-heavy pitcher, leaning heavily on a fastball-slider combo that can overpower hitters. The Padres lineup averages .273 this season with a projected xBA of .284 against Glasnow's offerings, indicating potential vulnerability to San Diego's contact ability.

Nestor Cortes (SD):

Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage, 90.4 mph), Cutter (35% usage, 86.6 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 82.4 mph), Sweeper (11% usage, 78.0 mph), Sinker (1% usage, 89.8 mph)

Cortes mixes speeds and movement to keep hitters off balance, but the Dodgers lineup, averaging .270 this season, projects a slightly lower .266 xBA against his arsenal. This suggests a competitive edge for Cortes, albeit a slight one.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Dodgers vs Nestor Cortes:

The Dodgers lineup averages .270 this season but projects to .266 against Cortes' arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Shohei Ohtani: Season BA .285 → xBA vs arsenal .315 (+30 points), Season K% 26.2% → Arsenal K% 23.7% (-2.5%)
Biggest Decrease: Will Smith: Season BA .303 → xBA vs arsenal .267 (-36 points), Season K% 19.7% → Arsenal K% 22.1% (+2.4%)

For Padres vs Tyler Glasnow:

The Padres lineup averages .273 this season and projects to .284 against Glasnow's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Xander Bogaerts: Season BA .264 → xBA vs arsenal .298 (+34 points), Season K% 16.0% → Arsenal K% 14.5% (-1.5%)
Biggest Decrease: No significant decreases noted.

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 19.7% vs Cortes — down 0.2% from their 19.9% season average, suggesting a potential contact play.
The Padres' projected K-rate is 18.1% vs Glasnow — up 0.9% from their 17.2% season average, indicating a slight increase in strikeout potential.

Behind the Plate

Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Shohei Ohtani (.285 → .315, +30 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant strikeout props meet our criteria for this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Shohei Ohtani shows a significant advantage against Nestor Cortes, making him a prime target for prop bets.
Xander Bogaerts could trouble Glasnow with his projected batting increase.
No umpire data available, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Dodgers are heavily favored, but Padres' lineup shows potential against Glasnow.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Dodgers vs Padres game? A: Shohei Ohtani meets our strict betting criteria with a significant xBA increase against Nestor Cortes.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to assess any bias.

Q: What time is the Dodgers vs Padres game? A: 8/23, 08:40PM

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