August 22, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Dodgers vs Padres: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 22)

Last updated: August 22, 2025

Game Time: 8/22, 09:40PM

Today's Setup

Tonight, the Los Angeles Dodgers face off against the San Diego Padres in an exciting MLB showdown. With DraftKings listing the Dodgers as a -123 favorite and the Padres as a +101 underdog, the betting market is slightly leaning towards Los Angeles, with 56% of the money backing the Dodgers. This matchup features two elite pitchers, promising a thrilling duel on the mound.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Blake Snell vs Yu Darvish

Blake Snell (LAD):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage, 95.4 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 85.8 mph), Curveball (19% usage, 80.8 mph), Slider (10% usage, 88.5 mph)
Interpretation: Snell is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying significantly on his fastball to overpower hitters while mixing in off-speed pitches.
Matchup Insight: The Padres lineup averages .273 this season with a projected xBA of .254 against Snell's arsenal, indicating a potential edge for the Dodgers' pitcher.

Yu Darvish (SD):

Arsenal: Sinker (23% usage, 93.4 mph), Slider (17% usage, 86.0 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 72.8 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage, 93.8 mph), Splitter (13% usage, 86.4 mph), Sweeper (11% usage, 82.6 mph), Cutter (5% usage, 91.0 mph), Changeup (1% usage, 88.1 mph)
Interpretation: Darvish is a true pitch-mix artist, utilizing a diverse array of pitches to keep hitters off balance.
Matchup Insight: The Dodgers lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .251 against Darvish's varied arsenal, suggesting a slight advantage for the Padres' pitcher.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Dodgers vs Yu Darvish:

The Dodgers lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .251 vs Darvish's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Mookie Betts: Season BA .246 → xBA vs arsenal .279 (+33 points), Season K% 10.6% → Arsenal K% 9.9% (-0.7%)
Biggest Decrease: Freddie Freeman: Season BA .303 → xBA vs arsenal .244 (-59 points), Season K% 22.0% → Arsenal K% 17.7% (-4.3%)

For Padres vs Blake Snell:

The Padres lineup averages .273 this season but projects to .254 vs Snell's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: No significant increases noted.
Biggest Decrease: Bryce Johnson: Season BA .314 → xBA vs arsenal .209 (-105 points), Season K% 26.3% → Arsenal K% 29.8% (+3.5%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Dodgers' projected K-rate is 22.7% vs Darvish — up 1.8% from their 21.0% season average.
Padres' projected K-rate is 20.2% vs Snell — up 2.6% from their 17.7% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Mookie Betts (.246 → .279, +33 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Mookie Betts shows a significant advantage against Darvish's arsenal, making him a prime candidate for prop bets.
No significant pitcher strikeout prop edges are evident in this matchup.
Umpire assignment remains unannounced, adding unpredictability for prop bets.
Overall, the Dodgers hold a slight edge with Snell's pitching projected to limit the Padres' offensive production.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Dodgers vs Padres game? A: Mookie Betts, with an expected boost in batting average against Darvish's arsenal, is a strong candidate for prop bets.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it uncertain whether the game will be pitcher-friendly.

Q: What time is the Dodgers vs Padres game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/22, 09:40 PM.

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