August 16, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Diamondbacks vs Rockies: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 16)

Last updated: August 16, 2025

Game Time: 8/16, 08:10PM

Brief Intro

The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Colorado Rockies in an intriguing matchup at Coors Field. With DraftKings favoring the Diamondbacks at -188 and the Rockies as +153 underdogs, bettors are heavily backing Arizona with 90% of the money. This game could hinge on the pitching performances, given the contrasting styles of the starters.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Ryne Nelson vs Chase Dollander

Ryne Nelson (AZ):

Ryne Nelson offers a diverse arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (64% usage, 95.6 mph), Slider (12% usage, 86.2 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 90.5 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 80.5 mph), and Changeup (4% usage, 86.7 mph). Nelson is a velocity-heavy pitcher who relies on his fastball to overpower hitters. The Rockies lineup averages .269 this season, with a projected xBA of .269 against Nelson's pitch mix, suggesting a neutral matchup.

Chase Dollander (COL):

Chase Dollander mixes a Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage, 97.7 mph), Curveball (22% usage, 78.9 mph), Cutter (12% usage, 89.5 mph), Sinker (9% usage, 96.9 mph), Changeup (8% usage, 89.0 mph), and rarely uses his Slider (0% usage, 86.7 mph). Dollander's arsenal is built around high velocity and movement. The Diamondbacks' lineup averages .249 this season but is projected to hit .239 against Dollander, indicating a challenging matchup for Arizona's hitters.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For AZ vs Chase Dollander:

The Diamondbacks lineup averages .249 this season but projects to .239 vs Dollander's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Tyler Locklear: Season BA .192 → xBA vs arsenal .248 (+56 points), Season K% 34.5% → Arsenal K% 29.3% (-5.2%)
Biggest Decrease: Alek Thomas: Season BA .249 → xBA vs arsenal .190 (-59 points), Season K% 25.7% → Arsenal K% 28.0% (+2.3%)

For COL vs Ryne Nelson:

The Rockies lineup averages .269 this season and projects to .269 vs Nelson's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Warming Bernabel: Season BA .292 → xBA vs arsenal .368 (+76 points), Season K% 13.5% → Arsenal K% 10.5% (-3.0%)
Biggest Decrease: Tyler Freeman: Season BA .299 → xBA vs arsenal .222 (-77 points), Season K% 22.7% → Arsenal K% 12.1% (-10.6%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Diamondbacks' projected K-rate is 22.6% vs Dollander — down 0.8% from their 23.4% season average.
The Rockies' projected K-rate is 23.7% vs Nelson — down 0.6% from their 24.3% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Warming Bernabel (.292 → .368, +76 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup for pitcher strikeout props.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Warming Bernabel of the Rockies presents an attractive batting prop, given his significant projected boost.
Tyler Locklear might surprise with a higher xBA against Chase Dollander.
Both pitchers could see below-average strikeout numbers, as team K-rates project slightly lower than season averages.
Umpire assignment is pending, adding a layer of uncertainty to prop bets.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the AZ vs COL game? A: Warming Bernabel meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA boost.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

Q: What time is the AZ vs COL game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/16, 08:10PM.

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---