August 26, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Cubs vs Giants: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 26)

Last updated: August 26, 2025

Game Time: 8/26, 09:45PM

Today's Setup

Tonight, the Chicago Cubs take on the San Francisco Giants in a late-night showdown at Oracle Park. The Cubs are currently favored with a -143 line on DraftKings, while the Giants are set as +118 underdogs. Interestingly, 96% of the betting money is backing the Cubs, which could suggest strong public confidence in Chicago's chances.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs Justin Verlander (SF)

Matthew Boyd (CHC):

Boyd utilizes a diverse pitch mix with an emphasis on his Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.3 mph), followed by a Changeup (24% usage, 78.8 mph), Slider (15% usage, 81.7 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 73.7 mph), and Sinker (4% usage, 91.9 mph). His style leans towards a pitch-mix artist with a moderate velocity profile. The Giants' lineup averages .237 this season but has a projected xBA of .234 against Boyd's arsenal, suggesting a slight disadvantage for San Francisco's hitters.

Justin Verlander (SF):

Verlander counters with a powerful Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 94.2 mph), complemented by a Slider (23% usage, 87.6 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 78.8 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 85.0 mph), and Sweeper (6% usage, 80.5 mph). Known for his velocity-heavy approach, Verlander poses a formidable challenge. The Cubs' lineup, which averages .253 this season, projects a .240 xBA against his pitches, indicating potential struggles for Chicago's hitters.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Cubs vs Verlander:

The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .240 against Verlander's arsenal.
Kyle Tucker faces the biggest decrease: Season BA .262 → xBA vs arsenal .199 (-63 points), Season K% 14.3% → Arsenal K% 17.7% (+3.4%).
Dansby Swanson shows a slight improvement: Season BA .246 → xBA vs arsenal .262 (+16 points).

For the Giants vs Boyd:

The Giants' lineup averages .237 this season and projects to .234 against Boyd's arsenal.
Heliot Ramos sees the largest drop: Season BA .260 → xBA vs arsenal .235 (-25 points), Season K% 23.4% → Arsenal K% 27.0% (+3.6%).

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.9% vs Verlander — up 4.8% from their 20.2% season average, suggesting potential value for Verlander's strikeout prop.
The Giants' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Boyd — up 2.5% from their 22.2% season average, indicating a moderate increase in strikeout vulnerability.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

Strikeout Prop Alert: Justin Verlander strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.9% vs this arsenal!

No individual batter meets the strict prop lean criteria of an xBA > 0.300 with a boost of +20 points or more.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Pitching Edge: Verlander's velocity-heavy arsenal could exploit the Cubs' increased strikeout vulnerability.
Batter Difficulties: Multiple Cubs batters face significant declines in projected xBA against Verlander.
Umpire Uncertainty: With no announced umpire, betting on strikeout or walk props carries added risk.
Overall Lean: With Verlander's strikeout potential against a struggling Cubs lineup, the strikeout prop for Verlander looks promising.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cubs vs Giants game? A: No players meet our strict betting criteria for individual batting props, but Verlander's strikeout potential stands out.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, leading to uncertainty in umpire tendencies.

Q: What time is the Cubs vs Giants game? A: The game is at 09:45PM on August 26.

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