Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
Cardinals vs Rays: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 24)
Last updated: August 24, 2025Game Time: 8/24, 12:10PM
Game Preview
The St. Louis Cardinals are set to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Rays are listed as a −131 favorite on DraftKings, while the Cardinals are +107 underdogs, with 62% of the betting money favoring Tampa Bay. This game will feature a compelling battle on the mound with Matthew Liberatore for the Cardinals and Ryan Pepiot for the Rays.
Starting Pitching Analysis
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs Ryan Pepiot (TB)
Matthew Liberatore (STL):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage, 94.0 mph), Slider (22% usage, 86.4 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 77.6 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 88.7 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 90.2 mph), Sinker (11% usage, 94.1 mph)
Matthew Liberatore is a balanced pitcher with a mix of velocity and craft, relying heavily on his fastball and slider. The Rays' lineup has been hitting at a .254 average this season, with a slightly lower projected xBA of .248 against Liberatore's arsenal.
Ryan Pepiot (TB):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 95.1 mph), Changeup (25% usage, 86.6 mph), Slider (18% usage, 89.0 mph), Cutter (8% usage, 91.5 mph), Curveball (3% usage, 80.9 mph), Sinker (2% usage, 94.8 mph)
Ryan Pepiot leans on a power approach, using his four-seam fastball and changeup effectively. The Cardinals' lineup averages .257 on the season but projects to a lower .243 against Pepiot's arsenal.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Cardinals vs Ryan Pepiot:
- The Cardinals' lineup averages .257 this season but projects to .243 against Pepiot's arsenal.
- Biggest Decrease: Iván Herrera: Season BA .283 → xBA vs arsenal .201 (-82 points), Season K% 21.1% → Arsenal K% 25.0% (+3.9%)
For the Rays vs Matthew Liberatore:
- The Rays' lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .248 against Liberatore's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Everson Pereira: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .290 (+40 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 33.0% (+10.5%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 22.9% vs Ryan Pepiot — up 1.6% from their 21.3% season average.
- The Rays' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Matthew Liberatore — up 2.3% from their 22.3% season average.
Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
- 📢 Prop Alert: Everson Pereira (.250 → .290, +40 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold for strikeout props in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Everson Pereira is the standout hitter with a significant boost in projected xBA against Liberatore's arsenal.
- No strong pitcher prop opportunities are available due to moderate increases in projected strikeout rates.
- Umpire influence remains unknown, adding a layer of uncertainty to prop betting.
- Overall, Everson Pereira presents the best individual prop opportunity in this matchup.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cardinals vs Rays game? A: Everson Pereira is the standout player, meeting our strict criteria with a significant xBA increase.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so we cannot assess tendencies at this time.
Q: What time is the Cardinals vs Rays game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/24 at 12:10PM.
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