August 22, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Cardinals vs Rays: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 22)

Last updated: August 22, 2025

Game Time: 8/22, 07:35PM

Matchup Setup

The St. Louis Cardinals head to Tropicana Field to face the Tampa Bay Rays in this intriguing MLB matchup. The Rays are favored at -138 on DraftKings, while the Cardinals are +114 underdogs, with 62% of the money backing the home team. This game offers a classic clash of pitching styles and lineup strengths worth analyzing for any serious bettor.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Miles Mikolas (STL) vs Adrian Houser (TB)

Miles Mikolas (STL):

Mikolas brings a diverse pitch mix to the mound: Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage, 92.7 mph), Slider (23% usage, 87.6 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 75.7 mph), Sinker (16% usage, 92.2 mph), Changeup (12% usage, 85.7 mph), Sweeper (4% usage, 80.8 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, Mikolas relies on his versatility rather than overpowering velocity. The Rays lineup averages .270 this season with a projected xBA of .234 against Mikolas' arsenal, indicating a tougher outing for Tampa Bay hitters.

Adrian Houser (TB):

Houser primarily uses a Sinker (46% usage, 94.2 mph), complemented by a Changeup (15% usage, 85.7 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 81.6 mph), Four-Seam (13% usage, 95.1 mph), and Slider (12% usage, 87.0 mph). His sinker-heavy approach aims to generate ground balls. The Cardinals lineup averages .258 this season but projects to hit .259 against Houser's arsenal, suggesting a slight edge for St. Louis at the plate.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For STL vs Adrian Houser:

The Cardinals lineup averages .258 this season but projects to .259 vs Houser's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Nolan Gorman: Season BA .223 → xBA vs arsenal .275 (+52 points), Season K% 30.2% → Arsenal K% 29.7% (-0.5%)
Biggest Decrease: Iván Herrera: Season BA .285 → xBA vs arsenal .227 (-58 points), Season K% 20.8% → Arsenal K% 24.0% (+3.2%)

For TB vs Miles Mikolas:

The Rays lineup averages .270 this season but projects to .234 vs Mikolas' arsenal.
Biggest Increase: No player met the significant criteria.
Biggest Decrease: Hunter Feduccia: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .161 (-89 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 34.6% (+12.1%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 20.5% vs Houser — down 0.9% from their 21.3% season average.
The Rays' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Mikolas — up 5.1% from their 19.6% season average.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Nolan Gorman (.223 → .275, +52 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Miles Mikolas strikeout OVER - TB's K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Nolan Gorman presents a strong batting prop opportunity with a projected xBA significantly above his season average.
Miles Mikolas could be a strong K prop candidate given the Rays' increased strikeout projection against him.
Umpire assignment is uncertain, adding volatility to prop bets.
Overall, the Cardinals have a slight edge in matchup dynamics.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cardinals vs Rays game? A: Nolan Gorman (.223 → .275, +52 points) meets our strict betting criteria for a strong batting prop.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making prop volatility a concern.

Q: What time is the Cardinals vs Rays game? A: 8/22, 07:35PM

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