Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Cardinals vs Marlins: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 20)
Last updated: August 20, 2025
Game Time: 8/20, 06:40PM
Today's Setup
Tonight, the St. Louis Cardinals face off against the Miami Marlins in a crucial matchup at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins are favored by DraftKings with a -126 line, riding on 61% of the money backing them to win, while the Cardinals sit as +104 underdogs. This game promises intriguing pitcher-batter matchups and potentially decisive swings, given the current form and betting sentiments.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Andre Pallante vs Sandy Alcantara
Andre Pallante (STL):
Andre Pallante deploys a diversified pitching arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 94.4 mph), Slider (29% usage, 87.6 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 78.1 mph), Sinker (13% usage, 95.0 mph), and Sweeper (0% usage, 85.0 mph). Pallante is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying primarily on his fastball to overpower hitters. The Marlins lineup, which averages .275 this season, is projected to hold a .273 batting average against Pallante's mix, suggesting a slightly favorable matchup for the pitcher.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA):
Sandy Alcantara offers a balanced mix: Sinker (23% usage, 97.2 mph), Changeup (22% usage, 90.4 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage, 97.5 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 85.3 mph), and Slider (16% usage, 89.2 mph). Alcantara's pitch mix features high velocity and movement, making him a challenging opponent. The Cardinals' lineup hits .258 on the season but projects to a lesser .253 against Alcantara's arsenal, indicating potential for Alcantara to suppress scoring.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Cardinals vs Sandy Alcantara:
- The Cardinals lineup averages .258 this season but projects to .253 vs Alcantara's arsenal.
- Biggest decrease: Iván Herrera sees a drop from a season BA of .287 to an xBA of .209 (-78 points). His strikeout rate also jumps from 21.1% to 27.8% (+6.7%).
For the Marlins vs Andre Pallante:
- The Marlins lineup averages .276 this season, with a slight drop to a projected .274 vs Pallante's arsenal.
- Biggest increase: Agustín Ramírez improves from a season BA of .250 to an xBA of .285 (+35 points), with a significant reduction in strikeout rate from 22.5% to 14.9% (-7.6%).
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 20.46% vs Alcantara — up 0.22% from their 20.24% season average. This suggests a moderate potential for Alcantara strikeouts.
- The Marlins' projected K-rate is 16.63% vs Pallante — up 0.81% from their 15.82% season average. Increased strikeout rates could signal potential for Pallante to exploit.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Agustín Ramírez shows a strong advantage with increased projected batting average and reduced strikeouts.
- Sandy Alcantara presents a potential strikeout opportunity against a Cardinals lineup with a slight increase in K-rate.
- Umpire TBA: Lack of umpire data introduces volatility; monitor for late updates.
- Overall Recommendation: Consider player and pitcher props focusing on Ramírez's hitting potential and Alcantara's strikeout upside.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the STL vs MIA game? A: Agustín Ramírez meets our strict betting criteria with a significant increase in expected batting average.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, adding uncertainty to the prop environment.
Q: What time is the STL vs MIA game? A: The game is scheduled for 6:40 PM.
---
Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!
---
