Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Brewers vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 21)
Last updated: August 21, 2025Game Time: 8/21, 02:20PM
Game Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers take on the Chicago Cubs in a crucial NL Central matchup. With the Cubs favored at -138 and the Brewers holding underdog odds of +113, 92% of the betting money is backing Milwaukee. This reflects the public's belief in the Brewers' potential to upset the odds at Wrigley Field.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Quinn Priester (MIL) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC)
Quinn Priester (MIL):
Priester is a diverse pitcher, utilizing a mix of pitches to keep batters guessing. His arsenal includes:
- Sinker (44% usage, 93.8 mph)
- Slider (28% usage, 86.0 mph)
- Cutter (18% usage, 92.3 mph)
- Curveball (9% usage, 80.7 mph)
- Changeup (2% usage, 88.5 mph)
As a velocity-heavy pitcher, Priester's reliance on his sinker and cutter could be pivotal against a Cubs lineup that averages .247 this season but projects to .273 against his pitch mix.
Shota Imanaga (CHC):
Imanaga counters with a crafty approach, leveraging a strategic pitch mix:
- Four-Seam (50% usage, 90.8 mph)
- Splitter (33% usage, 82.8 mph)
- Sweeper (14% usage, 80.2 mph)
- Curveball (2% usage, 71.6 mph)
The Brewers lineup, averaging .260 this season, projects to hit .237 against Imanaga’s deceptive arsenal. His splitter and sweeper will be crucial in disrupting Milwaukee’s timing at the plate.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Brewers vs Shota Imanaga:
- Milwaukee averages a .260 season BA but projects to drop to .237 against Imanaga.
- Andrew Vaughn sees the biggest increase: Season BA .243 → xBA vs arsenal .270 (+27 points), Season K% 18.6% → Arsenal K% 17.4% (-1.2%).
- Caleb Durbin experiences the largest decrease: Season BA .251 → xBA vs arsenal .190 (-61 points), Season K% 9.4% → Arsenal K% 14.0% (+4.6%).
For the Cubs vs Quinn Priester:
- Chicago is expected to improve from a .248 season BA to a .297 xBA against Priester.
- Ian Happ benefits significantly: Season BA .229 → xBA vs arsenal .295 (+66 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 18.9% (-3.6%).
- Matt Shaw faces challenges: Season BA .229 → xBA vs arsenal .227 (-2 points), Season K% 19.4% → Arsenal K% 23.5% (+4.1%).
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Brewers' projected K-rate is 21.9% vs Imanaga — up 3.0% from their 18.9% season average.
- The Cubs' projected K-rate is 19.6% vs Priester — down 1.9% from their 21.5% season average.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Ian Happ (.229 → .295, +66 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Ian Happ is a standout performer, showing significant batting improvement against Priester’s arsenal.
- Shota Imanaga’s splitter and sweeper pose a challenge for the Brewers, potentially lowering their offensive output.
- Quinn Priester faces a Cubs lineup poised to exploit his pitch mix.
- With no umpire information, bettors should approach prop bets cautiously.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: Ian Happ is the standout with a significant boost in xBA against Priester.
Q: Is [Umpire Name] a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
Q: What time is the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/21, 02:20PM.
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