August 27, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Braves vs Marlins: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 27)

Last updated: August 27, 2025

Game Time: 8/27, 01:10PM

Matchup Setup

The Atlanta Braves face off against the Miami Marlins in an afternoon clash where the Braves are favored at -136 on DraftKings, while the Marlins stand as +111 underdogs. With 74% of the money backing the Braves, the betting community clearly favors them to capture a victory on the road.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Joey Wentz (ATL) vs Ryan Gusto (MIA)

Joey Wentz (ATL):

Joey Wentz brings a diverse pitching arsenal to the mound featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.6 mph), Cutter (36% usage, 86.0 mph), Curveball (18% usage, 79.7 mph), and a seldom-used Changeup (1% usage, 86.3 mph). Wentz is a velocity-heavy pitcher who relies on his fastball and cutter to dominate the plate. The Marlins lineup hits .242 this season and projects to a slightly improved .255 xBA against Wentz's arsenal, indicating a potential challenge for Wentz.

Ryan Gusto (MIA):

Ryan Gusto counters with a vast array of pitches, including a Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 94.1 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 80.4 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 89.2 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 93.6 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 87.5 mph), Sweeper (9% usage, 82.3 mph), and Slider (1% usage, 83.5 mph). Gusto's approach as a pitch-mix artist challenges hitters to adjust constantly. The Braves lineup, which averages .247 on the season, projects a similar .247 xBA against Gusto, showing a minor lineup advantage expected.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Braves vs Ryan Gusto: The Braves lineup averages .247 this season but projects to .247 against Gusto's diverse pitch offerings. Notable lineup changes include:

Marcell Ozuna: Season BA .229 → xBA vs arsenal .272 (+43 points), Season K% 23.1% → Arsenal K% 21.8% (-1.3%)
Nick Allen: Season BA .220 → xBA vs arsenal .175 (-45 points), Season K% 23.9% → Arsenal K% 27.1% (+3.2%)

For Marlins vs Joey Wentz: The Marlins lineup shows a season average of .243 with a projected xBA of .255 against Wentz's arsenal. Key performers include:

Heriberto Hernández: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .290 (+40 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 24.6% (+2.1%)
Derek Hill: Season BA .212 → xBA vs arsenal .190 (-22 points), Season K% 33.6% → Arsenal K% 34.5% (+0.9%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Braves' projected K-rate is 22.8% vs Gusto — up 2.1% from their 20.7% season average.
The Marlins' projected K-rate is 18.9% vs Wentz — down 0.8% from their 19.7% season average.

Higher K-rates suggest pitcher prop opportunities for Gusto, while the Marlins could enjoy more contact against Wentz.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Marcell Ozuna (.229 → .272, +43 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Ryan Gusto strikeout OVER - Braves' K-rate jumps to 22.8% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Marcell Ozuna shows a significant batting advantage against Gusto's arsenal, providing a solid prop opportunity.
Ryan Gusto's pitch mix increases the Braves' strikeout risk, highlighting his strikeout over as a potential value bet.
With umpire data unavailable, caution is advised when betting on strikeouts or walks.
Overall, betting leans favor player props on Ozuna and strikeout props on Gusto.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Braves vs Marlins game? A: Marcell Ozuna provides a strong betting edge with his projected xBA significantly above his season average.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, affecting prop volatility.

Q: What time is the Braves vs Marlins game? A: The game starts at 8/27, 01:10PM.

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