Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

ATH vs Mariners: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 22)

Last updated: August 22, 2025

Game Time: 8/22, 10:10PM

Brief Intro

The Oakland Athletics are set to face the Seattle Mariners in a compelling matchup where the Mariners are favored at -227, with the Athletics as +183 underdogs according to DraftKings. With 69% of the betting public backing the Mariners, this game promises intriguing dynamics both on the mound and at the plate.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Luis Morales (ATH) vs Bryan Woo (SEA)

Luis Morales (ATH):

Luis Morales brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 96.9 mph), Sweeper (23% usage, 83.1 mph), Slider (13% usage, 84.7 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 89.0 mph), and a Cutter (1% usage, 88.2 mph). Morales's pitch mix suggests a velocity-heavy approach tailored to overpower hitters. The Mariners lineup averages .256 this season but projects a slightly lower xBA of .238 against Morales's arsenal.

Bryan Woo (SEA):

Bryan Woo counters with a strong set of pitches: Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 95.7 mph), Sinker (25% usage, 95.3 mph), Slider (11% usage, 88.3 mph), Sweeper (8% usage, 84.8 mph), and a Changeup (8% usage, 89.7 mph). Woo's mix leans on fastballs and movement, creating a challenge for hitters. The Athletics lineup, which averages .260 this season, is predicted to underperform with a projected xBA of .257 against Woo's offerings.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Athletics vs Bryan Woo:

• The Athletics lineup averages .260 this season but projects to .258 vs Woo's arsenal.
• Biggest xBA decrease: Nick Kurtz: Season BA .315 → xBA vs arsenal .275 (-40 points), Season K% 29.4% → Arsenal K% 28.5% (-0.9%)

For Mariners vs Luis Morales:

• The Mariners lineup averages .256 this season but projects to .238 vs Morales's arsenal.
• Biggest xBA increase: Jorge Polanco: Season BA .242 → xBA vs arsenal .266 (+24 points), Season K% 16.0% → Arsenal K% 16.1% (+0.1%)
• Biggest xBA decrease: Josh Naylor: Season BA .282 → xBA vs arsenal .229 (-53 points), Season K% 14.4% → Arsenal K% 20.9% (+6.5%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

• The Athletics' projected K-rate is 20.1% vs Woo — down 2.5% from their 22.6% season average, indicating potential contact play.
• The Mariners' projected K-rate is 24.1% vs Morales — up 4.2% from their 19.9% season average, suggesting a possible K prop value.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

🔑 Key Takeaways

• Jorge Polanco shows potential for a strong performance against Morales, meeting our batting lean criteria.
• Luis Morales may capitalize on Seattle's elevated strikeout rate, suggesting value in K props.
• The absence of confirmed umpire data introduces an element of uncertainty in prop betting.
• Despite team batting averages, individual player metrics highlight distinct prop opportunities.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the ATH vs SEA game? A: Jorge Polanco is identified as a strong prop candidate with a projected xBA increase against Morales's arsenal.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, leaving tendencies unknown.

Q: What time is the ATH vs SEA game? A: The game starts at 8/22, 10:10PM.

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📚 Sources

• MLB.com – Official Stats & News
• Baseball Savant – Advanced Analytics