Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Astros vs Tigers: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 20)
Last updated: August 20, 2025Game Time: 8/20, 01:10PM
Today's Setup
The Houston Astros face off against the Detroit Tigers in today’s MLB matchup, with Framber Valdez and Charlie Morton taking the mound for their respective teams. DraftKings positions the Astros as a −136 favorite, while the Tigers are priced at +111 underdogs, with 56% of the betting public backing the Astros.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Framber Valdez (HOU) vs Charlie Morton (DET)
Framber Valdez (HOU):
- Arsenal: Sinker (44% usage, 94.4 mph), Curveball (33% usage, 79.5 mph), Changeup (18% usage, 90.0 mph), Slider (2% usage, 84.2 mph), Four-Seam (2% usage, 93.6 mph)
- Interpretation: Valdez is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a strong sinker-curveball combination designed to induce ground balls.
- Matchup: The Tigers lineup averages .256 this season with a projected xBA of .243 against Valdez's arsenal.
Charlie Morton (DET):
- Arsenal: Curveball (38% usage, 81.4 mph), Four-Seam (29% usage, 94.2 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 94.0 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 87.6 mph), Cutter (8% usage, 88.0 mph)
- Interpretation: Morton relies heavily on his curveball, with a balanced mix of fastballs and off-speed pitches.
- Matchup: The Astros lineup averages .260 this season but projects to .252 against Morton's offerings.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Astros vs Charlie Morton:
- The Astros lineup averages .260 this season but projects to .252 vs Morton’s arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Mauricio Dubón: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .277 (+27 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 7.8% (-14.7%)
- Biggest Decrease: Christian Walker: Season BA .237 → xBA vs arsenal .204 (-33 points), Season K% 26.4% → Arsenal K% 33.7% (+7.3%)
For Tigers vs Framber Valdez:
- The Tigers lineup averages .256 this season with a projected xBA of .243 vs Valdez’s arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Gleyber Torres: Season BA .259 → xBA vs arsenal .284 (+25 points), Season K% 14.6% → Arsenal K% 9.7% (-4.9%)
- Biggest Decrease: Andy Ibáñez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .172 (-78 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 14.1% (-8.4%)
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Astros' projected K-rate is 23.5% vs Morton — up 1% from their 22.5% season average.
- The Tigers' projected K-rate is 23.1% vs Valdez — up 0.2% from their 22.9% season average.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Mauricio Dubón (.250 → .277, +27 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Mauricio Dubón shows a significant batting advantage against Charlie Morton, making him a strong prop candidate.
- Both pitchers might see slightly increased strikeout numbers, but no overwhelming trends emerge.
- The umpire's assignment is not confirmed, adding uncertainty to strikeout and walk prop bets.
- Overall, Dubón presents the most compelling prop bet opportunity given the data.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Astros vs Tigers game? A: Mauricio Dubón stands out with a significant xBA increase against Charlie Morton.
Q: Is [Umpire Name] a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
Q: What time is the Astros vs Tigers game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/20 at 01:10PM.
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