August 23, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Astros vs Orioles: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 23)

Last updated: August 23, 2025

Game Time: 8/23, 07:05PM

Game Overview

The Houston Astros travel to Camden Yards to face the Baltimore Orioles in a highly anticipated matchup. DraftKings lists the Orioles as a -127 favorite, while the Astros come in as a +104 underdog. Notably, 57% of the betting money is currently backing the Astros, indicating strong public confidence in the underdog.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Cristian Javier vs Dean Kremer

Cristian Javier (HOU):

Cristian Javier brings a diverse arsenal with a strong emphasis on his Sinker (42% usage, 92.2 mph), complemented by a Cutter (20% usage, 89.0 mph), and a Sweeper (16% usage, 80.6 mph). He also mixes in a Four-Seam (12% usage, 92.5 mph), Changeup (5% usage, 86.0 mph), Curveball (4% usage, 77.3 mph), and Slider (2% usage, 84.0 mph). This pitch mix showcases Javier as a balanced pitcher, capable of adjusting his strategy to exploit hitter weaknesses. The Orioles lineup averages .246 this season with a projected xBA of .2605 against Javier’s arsenal, indicating potential vulnerability to his pitch variety.

Dean Kremer (BAL):

Dean Kremer counters with a varied mix, led by a Four-Seam (26% usage, 93.3 mph) and supported by a Cutter (21% usage, 86.9 mph) and Splitter (21% usage, 81.9 mph). He also utilizes a Sinker (19% usage, 92.8 mph) and a Curveball (13% usage, 78.3 mph). The Astros lineup, known for its discipline, averages .248 this season but projects to a slightly improved .259 against Kremer’s offerings, suggesting they could handle his repertoire effectively.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Astros vs Dean Kremer: The Astros lineup averages .248 this season but projects to .259 against Kremer’s arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Carlos Correa: Season BA .279 → xBA vs arsenal .308 (+29 points), Season K% 18.1% → Arsenal K% 11.7% (-6.4%)
Biggest Decrease: Jesús Sánchez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .230 (-20 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 26.4% (+3.9%)

For Orioles vs Cristian Javier: The Orioles lineup averages .246 this season and projects to .2605 against Javier’s pitching style.

Biggest Increase: Ryan Mountcastle: Season BA .257 → xBA vs arsenal .288 (+31 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 20.5% (-3.0%)
Biggest Decrease: Jeremiah Jackson: Season BA .276 → xBA vs arsenal .252 (-24 points), Season K% 20.1% → Arsenal K% 21.8% (+1.7%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

For the Astros: The Astros' projected K-rate is 19.1% vs Kremer — down 2.8% from their 21.9% season average, indicating a potential contact advantage.

For the Orioles: The Orioles' projected K-rate is 22.1% vs Javier — down 2.5% from their 24.5% season average, suggesting moderate contact potential.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Carlos Correa (.279 → .308, +29 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No strikeout prop meets our betting threshold in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Carlos Correa is a strong prop candidate due to his significant projected increase in batting average.
Cristian Javier and Dean Kremer both face lineups that project to make contact, lowering strikeout prop opportunities.
Umpire impact is uncertain with no assignment announced, creating volatility in props.
Overall betting recommendation leans towards Carlos Correa's performance against Kremer.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Astros vs Orioles game? A: Carlos Correa meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA significantly above his season average.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making it difficult to assess tendencies.

Q: What time is the Astros vs Orioles game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/23 at 07:05 PM.

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