August 21, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Astros vs Orioles: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 21)

Last updated: August 21, 2025

Game Time: 8/21, 07:15PM

Today's Setup

The Houston Astros head to Baltimore to face the Orioles in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. Today's game features a showdown between two pitchers with contrasting arsenals, as Jason Alexander takes the mound for the Astros against the Orioles' Brandon Young. Unfortunately, the betting odds for this game are currently unavailable, adding a layer of mystery for bettors looking to get an edge.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Jason Alexander vs Brandon Young

Jason Alexander (HOU):

Four-Seam (27% usage, 90.7 mph); Sweeper (21% usage, 80.3 mph); Cutter (19% usage, 86.8 mph); Sinker (18% usage, 90.3 mph); Changeup (15% usage, 83.3 mph)

Alexander is a pitch-mix artist, utilizing a variety of pitches to keep hitters off balance. His slightly slower velocity compared to league averages means he relies heavily on movement and location. The Orioles lineup averages .2398 this season with a projected xBA of .2373 vs Alexander's arsenal, indicating a slight advantage for the pitcher.

Brandon Young (BAL):

Four-Seam (43% usage, 93.9 mph); Splitter (19% usage, 87.3 mph); Curveball (16% usage, 76.2 mph); Cutter (10% usage, 86.8 mph); Slider (7% usage, 83.6 mph); Changeup (4% usage, 87.4 mph)

Young is a velocity-heavy pitcher, with his fastball being the most prominent weapon in his arsenal. The Astros lineup averages .2565 this season but projects to .2396 vs Young's offerings, suggesting a challenge for Houston hitters.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Astros vs Brandon Young: The Astros lineup averages .2565 this season but projects to .2396 vs Young's arsenal.

Biggest Decrease: Cam Smith: Season BA .304 → xBA vs arsenal .254 (-50 points), Season K% 19.4% → Arsenal K% 24.3% (+4.9%)

For Orioles vs Jason Alexander: The Orioles lineup averages .2398 this season but projects to .2373 vs Alexander's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Gunnar Henderson: Season BA .281 → xBA vs arsenal .306 (+25 points), Season K% 22.0% → Arsenal K% 22.2% (+0.2%)
Biggest Decrease: Luis Vázquez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .225 (-25 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 13.1% (-9.4%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Astros' projected K-rate is 25.9% vs Young — up 3.9% from their 22.0% season average.
The Orioles' projected K-rate is 25.5% vs Alexander — up 1.3% from their 24.2% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Gunnar Henderson (.281 → .306, +25 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Brandon Young strikeout OVER - Astros' K-rate jumps to 25.9% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Gunnar Henderson shows a significant increase in projected batting average, making him a top prop candidate.
Brandon Young presents a strikeout opportunity given the Astros' increased K-rate against his arsenal.
The lack of announced umpire adds uncertainty to prop bets, especially for strikeout and walk props.
Overall, Gunnar Henderson's batting edge and Brandon Young's strikeout potential are the standout betting opportunities.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Astros vs Orioles game? A: Gunnar Henderson meets our criteria with a projected xBA increase of 25 points.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making it difficult to assess.

Q: What time is the Astros vs Orioles game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/21, 07:15PM.

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