1Spain+450DraftKings15.3%6.5%-8.8

2France+475DraftKings14.6%13.0%-1.7

3England+750DraftKings9.9%6.2%-3.7

4Portugal+800DraftKings9.3%4.5%-4.9

5Brazil+900DraftKings8.4%8.2%-0.3

6Argentina+900DraftKings8.4%10.9%+2.4

7Germany+1400DraftKings5.6%9.3%+3.7

8Netherlands+2000DraftKings4.0%6.3%+2.3

9Norway+3000DraftKings2.7%1.3%-1.4

10Colombia+4000DraftKings2.1%1.6%-0.4

11Belgium+4000DraftKings2.1%4.3%+2.2

12Morocco+5000DraftKings1.6%1.6%-0.1

13Japan+5500DraftKings1.5%1.1%-0.4

14United States+6000DraftKings1.4%0.5%-0.9

15Switzerland+6500DraftKings1.3%1.4%+0.1

16Mexico+6500DraftKings1.3%1.4%+0.1

17Uruguay+6500DraftKings1.3%1.2%-0.1

18Ecuador+8000DraftKings1.0%0.4%-0.7

19Turkey+9000DraftKings0.9%0.9%-0.0

20Croatia+9000DraftKings0.9%4.8%+3.9

21Senegal+9000DraftKings0.9%0.8%-0.1

22Sweden+12000DraftKings0.7%0.7%+0.0

23Austria+15000DraftKings0.6%1.5%+0.9

24Scotland+20000DraftKings0.4%0.7%+0.3

25Canada+20000DraftKings0.4%0.2%-0.2

26Czech Republic+25000DraftKings0.3%2.1%+1.8

27Ivory Coast+25000DraftKings0.3%0.9%+0.6

28Ghana+30000DraftKings0.3%0.2%-0.1

29Egypt+30000DraftKings0.3%0.7%+0.5

30Paraguay+30000DraftKings0.3%0.2%-0.0

31Algeria+35000DraftKings0.2%0.9%+0.6

32South Korea+40000DraftKings0.2%1.0%+0.8

33Tunisia+50000DraftKings0.2%0.3%+0.1

34Bosnia and Herzegovina+50000DraftKings0.2%0.3%+0.1

35Australia+60000DraftKings0.1%0.8%+0.7

36Iran+70000DraftKings0.1%1.0%+0.9

37DR Congo+100000DraftKings0.1%0.3%+0.2

38South Africa+100000DraftKings0.1%0.2%+0.2

39Cape Verde+100000DraftKings0.1%0.1%+0.0

40Saudi Arabia+100000DraftKings0.1%0.2%+0.2

41Panama+100000DraftKings0.1%0.1%+0.0

42Uzbekistan+150000DraftKings0.1%0.4%+0.3

43Qatar+150000DraftKings0.1%0.1%+0.0

44New Zealand+150000DraftKings0.1%0.0%-0.0

45Iraq+150000DraftKings0.1%0.4%+0.4

46Haiti+250000DraftKings0.0%0.2%+0.2

47Curaçao+250000DraftKings0.0%0.1%+0.0

48Jordan+250000DraftKings0.0%0.2%+0.1

Market probabilities are de-vigged across 1 book (DraftKings). Our model probability comes from the all-time power rating and is a lean, not a guaranteed +EV edge — it does not account for injuries, squad changes, or the bracket draw.