PIT · WR
Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy Outlook 2026: Pittsburgh Paid For The Floor, Not The Ceiling
Pittman has cleared 800 yards in five straight seasons but averaged 4.2 touchdowns per year as Indianapolis' lead receiver — and now he moves to Pittsburgh as the complement to DK Metcalf.
The disagreement is about what Pittsburgh does with him
Our board ranks Michael Pittman Jr. 78 overall with 169.0 implied PPR points. The draft room waits until 118.1. That is a gap of 40 picks, with our value model putting his fair price at 123.
Sportsbooks project him for 70.5 receptions, 750 receiving yards, and 4.5 touchdowns. The market treats the move from Indianapolis to Pittsburgh as neutral to negative, expecting him to do roughly what he has always done — clear 800 yards, catch 70-plus passes, score four or five times — just in a different uniform.
The projection assumes his volume drops and his touchdown rate regresses, which is reasonable — unless Rodgers throws for more yards than the Colts did, which he will.
What he actually did in Indianapolis
He finished last season as WR18 with 202.4 PPR points, on 80 receptions, 784 yards, and 7 touchdowns. That was against a preseason line of 52.33 catches, 750.5 yards, and 3.5 scores. The market nailed the yardage and badly underpriced his touchdown rate.
He has been a top-20 receiver in four of six NFL seasons, but only twice has he cleared six touchdowns. His career average is 4.2 scores per year. He has never beaten 800 receiving yards despite handling 24% of his team's targets as the clear number-one option.
Eight of his 17 games last season came in under 10 PPR points. Four cleared 20. That is steady volume with volatile efficiency — a WR2 you can start most weeks but not a player who wins matchups.