JAX · WR
Jakobi Meyers Fantasy Outlook 2026: The Floor Without The Ceiling
Meyers has cleared 800 receiving yards in five straight seasons but has never reached 1,100, and he posted just three touchdowns across 16 games in 2025 against a 4.5-touchdown line.
What five years of the same season looks like
Jakobi Meyers has cleared 800 receiving yards in each of the past five seasons. He has never reached 1,100. Last year he caught 75 passes for 835 yards and three touchdowns across 16 games, finishing as WR31 with 175.8 PPR points. The shape does not change.
The 2025 props had him at 68.97 receptions, 825.5 receiving yards, and 4.5 touchdowns. He beat the yardage line by nine yards but missed the touchdown projection by 1.5 scores, which is where his fantasy shortfall lives. Seven total touchdowns across the past two seasons means the red-zone role is not expanding.
His weekly distribution: one game over 20 PPR points, nine games under 10, a 21.3-point ceiling in Week 13 and a 6.3-point floor in Week 9. The standard deviation of 4.2 points per game means he delivers the same middling output almost every week.
He has cleared 800 receiving yards in five straight seasons but has never reached 1,100, and nine games under 10 points last year means the floor is reliable but low.
Why the board ranks him ahead of ADP despite low confidence
Our value model puts Jakobi Meyers at 91 overall with 162.0 implied points, which sits 47 picks ahead of his 137.5 ADP. That gap comes with a low confidence grade because sportsbooks have posted only a receiving-yards market on him — no receptions line, no touchdowns line.
The projection is built from a 700-yard receiving line and modeling the rest, which means most of the 162.0 implied points are interpolated rather than derived from live prices. The value model flags this: too little posted market to call it either way.