TEN · WR
Carnell Tate Fantasy Outlook 2026: The Draft Room Is Betting On A Role The Props Don't See Yet
Tate went fourth overall to Tennessee and the draft room is taking him at WR37. Sportsbooks have posted him at 800 yards and 4.5 touchdowns, which converts to a rank 36 spots lower than ESPN's.
What the sixth-round price is buying
The draft room is taking Carnell Tate at 109.2 overall, which prices him as WR39 off the board. That cost assumes he steps into a featured role immediately, which is not unreasonable. Tennessee used a top-five pick on him and cleared the depth chart by not retaining DeAndre Hopkins, who commanded 23% of team targets last season.
Top-ten receiver picks have historically captured around 25% of their team's targets as rookies when landing in situations with this little incumbent competition. Tate posted a 75% catch rate and 13.1 yards per target across three years at Ohio State, which suggests the efficiency translates if the volume arrives.
ESPN has him 61 overall with 213 projected points, which would make him a low-end WR2. The draft room is paying slightly less at 109.2, treating him as a back-end flex with upside if that target share materializes.
The props have him at 800 yards and 4.5 touchdowns while ESPN projects 213 points. That 22-spot gap is purely about whether 70 targets or 90 targets is the right bet.
Where the sportsbooks stop agreeing
The props tell a different story. Sportsbooks have posted Tate at 800 receiving yards and 4.5 receiving touchdowns, which converts to 166.0 implied PPR points and a board rank of 86. That is 22 spots lower than ESPN and 36 spots lower than where the draft room is taking him.
The gap is not about efficiency — 800 yards on 61.5 projected receptions is 13 yards per catch, matching what he did in college. The disagreement is purely about volume. To hit ESPN's 213-point projection he would need roughly 950 receiving yards and six touchdowns, requiring close to 90 targets. The props are pricing him closer to 70.