JAX · WR
Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Outlook 2026: The Trevor Lawrence Tax
Thomas opened 2025 ranked 16th overall and finished as WR42, posting 707 yards and two touchdowns despite a 14.4-yard average depth of target that suggested big-play upside.
What the quarterback change actually did
Brian Thomas Jr. averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game as a rookie with Mac Jones throwing him the ball. That number dropped to 9.9 points per game in 2025 with Trevor Lawrence under center, and he finished as the 42nd receiver after opening the season ranked 16th overall.
The mechanism was not volume disappearing entirely — it was volume arriving in a shape that does not produce fantasy points. His 14.4-yard average depth of target pushed him into a pure vertical role, and vertical roles in Jacksonville's offense meant fewer targets. He caught 48 passes on a 17% target share across 14 games.
Sportsbooks posted him at 1,150.5 receiving yards and 6.5 touchdowns going into 2025. He finished with 707 yards and two receiving touchdowns. That is a complete structural breakdown of the role the market expected him to play.
He averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game with Mac Jones as a rookie but only 9.9 with Trevor Lawrence, and the difference was not his skill set breaking down.
The weekly experience was unusable
One game all season cleared 20 PPR points, a 23-point outing in Week 6. Nine of his 14 games came in under 10 points, including a 3.8 in Week 16. For a player drafted in the second or third round in most leagues last year, he was not startable often enough to justify the roster slot.
Jacksonville added Washington and brought back Meyers, and Thomas's target share compressed to 17%. In an offense that could not support three pass-catchers, he became the one whose usage suffered because his route tree lived furthest from the line of scrimmage.