Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
Yankees vs Cardinals: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 16)
Last updated: August 16, 2025Game Time: 8/16, 07:15PM
Today's Setup
In this intriguing matchup, the New York Yankees face off against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Yankees enter as favorites, with DraftKings listing them at -148, while the Cardinals sit as +122 underdogs. A significant 72% of the betting public is backing the Yankees, indicating strong market confidence in the Bronx Bombers' chances.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs Sonny Gray
Max Fried (NYY):
- Cutter (31% usage, 93.6 mph)
- Curveball (18% usage, 75.3 mph)
- Sinker (17% usage, 93.9 mph)
- Four-Seam (12% usage, 95.6 mph)
- Sweeper (11% usage, 81.2 mph)
- Changeup (10% usage, 84.7 mph)
- Slider (2% usage, 85.0 mph)
Max Fried is a pitch-mix artist who effectively uses a diverse arsenal to keep hitters off-balance. The St. Louis Cardinals lineup has struggled against similar arsenals, averaging a .235 season BA with a projected xBA of .235 vs Fried's offerings.
Sonny Gray (STL):
- Four-Seam (22% usage, 91.7 mph)
- Sweeper (20% usage, 85.0 mph)
- Sinker (18% usage, 92.2 mph)
- Curveball (18% usage, 80.1 mph)
- Cutter (12% usage, 88.1 mph)
- Changeup (8% usage, 86.3 mph)
- Slider (2% usage, 84.4 mph)
Sonny Gray, known for his finesse and control, faces a Yankees lineup that averages a .255 season BA but is projected to improve slightly to a .259 xBA against his arsenal. His pitch variety could challenge the Yankees, though their overall hitting prowess might exploit certain matchups.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Yankees vs Sonny Gray:
- The Yankees lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .259 vs Gray's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Trent Grisham: Season BA .242 → xBA vs arsenal .283 (+41 points), Season K% 21.1% → Arsenal K% 20.0% (-1.1%)
- Biggest Decrease: Giancarlo Stanton: Season BA .299 → xBA vs arsenal .247 (-52 points), Season K% 31.7% → Arsenal K% 30.6% (-1.1%)
For Cardinals vs Max Fried:
- The Cardinals lineup averages .250 this season but projects to .235 vs Fried's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Nolan Gorman: Season BA .226 → xBA vs arsenal .253 (+27 points), Season K% 30.2% → Arsenal K% 25.2% (-5.0%)
- Biggest Decrease: Iván Herrera: Season BA .294 → xBA vs arsenal .228 (-66 points), Season K% 21.1% → Arsenal K% 22.6% (+1.5%)
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Yankees' projected K-rate is 24.6% vs Sonny Gray — up 0.2% from their 24.4% season average.
- The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 22.2% vs Max Fried — down 0.7% from their 23.0% season average.
Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Trent Grisham (.242 → .283, +41 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: No qualifying strikeout prop alerts based on current data.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Trent Grisham emerges as a favorable batting prop, projecting a significant increase in xBA against Sonny Gray.
- Giancarlo Stanton and Iván Herrera face challenging matchups that could suppress their production.
- While the Yankees have a slight edge in contact against Gray, no substantial strikeout prop edges are present.
- Umpire assignment uncertainty adds volatility to prop bets.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Yankees vs Cardinals game? A: Trent Grisham shows a strong statistical edge, meeting our criteria for a batting prop.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, leaving prop bets subject to higher volatility.
Q: What time is the Yankees vs Cardinals game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/16, 07:15PM.
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