August 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Sox vs Orioles: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 28)

Last updated: August 28, 2025

Game Time: 8/28, 01:05PM

Matchup Setup

The Boston Red Sox visit the Baltimore Orioles in a game where momentum and analytics play crucial roles. Boston enters as a significant favorite with -198 odds on DraftKings, while Baltimore stands as a +160 underdog. The heavy backing of 92% on the Red Sox suggests strong market confidence in their victory.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Garrett Crochet vs Cade Povich

Garrett Crochet (BOS):

Arsenal: Four-Seam (38% usage, 96.3 mph); Cutter (29% usage, 90.9 mph); Sweeper (15% usage, 82.6 mph); Sinker (14% usage, 95.8 mph); Changeup (4% usage, 88.0 mph)
Interpretation: Crochet is a velocity-heavy pitcher, focusing primarily on his fastball and cutter combination to overpower hitters.
Matchup Insight: The Orioles lineup averages .238 this season and is projected to have an xBA of .248 vs Crochet's arsenal, suggesting a slight improvement against his pitch mix.

Cade Povich (BAL):

Arsenal: Four-Seam (38% usage, 92.3 mph); Curveball (21% usage, 78.9 mph); Changeup (16% usage, 83.7 mph); Sweeper (13% usage, 82.8 mph); Sinker (12% usage, 91.9 mph)
Interpretation: Povich is a pitch-mix artist, utilizing a balanced array of offerings to keep hitters guessing.
Matchup Insight: The Red Sox lineup, with a season average of .276, projects to an xBA of .242 against Povich, indicating potential struggles against his varied arsenal.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Boston vs Cade Povich:

Team Average Insight: The Red Sox lineup averages .276 this season but projects to .242 vs Povich's arsenal.
Key Performers:

- Carlos Narváez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .265 (+15 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 13.8% (-8.7%) - Jhostynxon Garcia: Season BA .297 → xBA vs arsenal .145 (-152 points), Season K% 13.1% → Arsenal K% 37.3% (+24.2%)

For Baltimore vs Garrett Crochet:

Team Average Insight: The Orioles lineup averages .238 this season and projects to .248 vs Crochet's arsenal.
Key Performers:

- Gunnar Henderson: Season BA .278 → xBA vs arsenal .313 (+35 points), Season K% 22.3% → Arsenal K% 18.8% (-3.5%) - Jeremiah Jackson: Season BA .276 → xBA vs arsenal .245 (-31 points), Season K% 20.1% → Arsenal K% 19.7% (-0.4%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Boston Red Sox: The projected K-rate is 25.0% vs Cade Povich — up 3.4% from their 21.6% season average.
Baltimore Orioles: The projected K-rate is 21.2% vs Garrett Crochet — down 3.7% from their 24.9% season average.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

Batting Lean Criteria:

- 📢 Prop Alert: Gunnar Henderson (.278 → .313, +35 points) meets betting lean criteria!

Strikeout Prop Alert:

- No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Gunnar Henderson displays a significant edge against Garrett Crochet, projecting to outperform his season average.
No Boston batters meet the strong betting lean criteria against Cade Povich.
The Orioles show a potential for contact improvement against Crochet, lowering their K-rate.
Umpire assignment uncertainty adds a layer of volatility to betting props.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Red Sox vs Orioles game? A: Gunnar Henderson is a standout with a projected xBA significantly higher than his season average.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, adding volatility to prop bets.

Q: What time is the Red Sox vs Orioles game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/28, 01:05PM.

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