August 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Rockies vs Astros: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 28)

Last updated: August 28, 2025

Game Time: 8/28, 02:10PM

Game Overview

The Colorado Rockies square off against the Houston Astros in what looks to be a lopsided matchup according to the betting lines. DraftKings lists the Houston Astros as a -238 favorite, with the Colorado Rockies as a +191 underdog. A substantial 94% of the betting money is backing the Astros, indicating strong public confidence in the home team's chances.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Freeland vs Jason Alexander

Kyle Freeland (COL):

Freeland's pitch arsenal is diverse, featuring a mix of six different pitches: Four-Seam (32% usage, 91.6 mph); Curveball (25% usage, 82.7 mph); Cutter (15% usage, 87.5 mph); Sweeper (13% usage, 83.8 mph); Sinker (8% usage, 91.4 mph); Changeup (7% usage, 86.4 mph). This variety makes him a pitch-mix artist, though not velocity-heavy. The Astros lineup has averaged .263 this season but is projected to hit .246 against Freeland's mix, suggesting a potential edge for the pitcher.

Jason Alexander (HOU):

Alexander relies on a Five-pitch mix: Four-Seam (27% usage, 90.7 mph); Sweeper (21% usage, 80.3 mph); Cutter (19% usage, 86.9 mph); Sinker (18% usage, 90.4 mph); Changeup (16% usage, 83.3 mph). His approach is similarly pitch-mix oriented. The Rockies lineup, with a season average of .266, projects to a slightly lower .255 against Alexander's offerings.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Rockies vs Jason Alexander:

The Rockies lineup averages .266 this season but projects to .255 vs Alexander's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Mickey Moniak: Season BA .259 → xBA vs arsenal .309 (+50 points), Season K% 24.0% → Arsenal K% 17.2% (-6.8%)
Biggest Decrease: Orlando Arcia: Season BA .297 → xBA vs arsenal .189 (-108 points), Season K% 13.1% → Arsenal K% 23.3% (+10.2%)

For the Astros vs Kyle Freeland:

The Astros lineup averages .263 this season but projects to .246 vs Freeland's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Jeremy Peña: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .282 (+32 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 15.5% (-7.0%)
Biggest Decrease: Yordan Alvarez: Season BA .265 → xBA vs arsenal .213 (-52 points), Season K% 25.8% → Arsenal K% 27.1% (+1.3%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Rockies' projected K-rate is 22.8% vs Alexander — down 0.03% from their 22.9% season average.
The Astros' projected K-rate is 22.2% vs Freeland — up 0.93% from their 21.3% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Mickey Moniak (.259 → .309, +50 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant strikeout prop edges are present in this matchup since neither team meets our strict betting criteria.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Mickey Moniak shows a significant increase in expected batting average against Jason Alexander, making him a prop bet candidate.
Jeremy Peña is expected to perform better against Kyle Freeland's pitching style.
Without confirmed umpire data, betting on pitching props carries additional risk.
Overall, the Astros are heavily favored, but with no clear pitching prop advantage due to the lack of significant strikeout rate changes.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rockies vs Astros game? A: Mickey Moniak stands out with a significant projected increase in batting average against Jason Alexander.

Q: Is the umpire assignment pitcher-friendly? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

Q: What time is the Rockies vs Astros game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/28, 02:10PM.

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