Game Time: 8/6, 02:20 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Cincinnati Reds are visiting the Chicago Cubs for a late afternoon matchup that promises to be intriguing for bettors. DraftKings currently lists the Cubs as -138 favorites, while the Reds sit as +114 underdogs, with 65% of the betting money backing the Cubs. As both teams look to solidify their standings, the pitching duel and batter matchups will be critical.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Andrew Abbott vs. Cade Horton
Andrew Abbott (CIN):
Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage, 92.5 mph); Changeup (20% usage, 84.4 mph); Curveball (16% usage, 80.9 mph); Sweeper (12% usage, 82.6 mph); Cutter (4% usage, 88.4 mph)
Abbott is a pitch-mix artist, utilizing his diverse arsenal to keep hitters off balance. However, the Cubs lineup has been stubborn against similar profiles, averaging .242 this season with a projected xBA of .242 against Abbott's offerings.
Cade Horton (CHC):
Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage, 95.7 mph); Sweeper (21% usage, 83.8 mph); Changeup (13% usage, 87.8 mph); Curveball (11% usage, 84.0 mph); Sinker (4% usage, 95.2 mph); Slider (0% usage, 83.9 mph)
Horton boasts a velocity-heavy approach with his fastball and sinker, complemented by a sharp sweeper. The Reds lineup, which averages .258 this season, is projected to struggle, with an xBA of .229 against Horton's heat and breaking balls.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Reds lineup, averaging .258 this season, projects to .229 against Horton's arsenal.
The batter with the BIGGEST DECREASE in xBA is Elly Cruz: Season BA .282 → xBA vs. arsenal .233 (-49 points), Season K% 24.4% → Arsenal K% 33.5% (+9.1%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Cubs lineup, averaging .256 this season, projects to .242 against Abbott's arsenal.
The batter with the BIGGEST INCREASE in xBA is Ian Happ: Season BA .228 → xBA vs. arsenal .259 (+31 points), Season K% 22.2% → Arsenal K% 22.7% (+0.5%).
The batter with the BIGGEST DECREASE in xBA is Kyle Tucker: Season BA .274 → xBA vs. arsenal .200 (-74 points), Season K% 13.9% → Arsenal K% 15.7% (+1.8%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Reds' projected K-rate is 27.1% vs. Horton — up 4.2% from their 22.9% season average, indicating a potential K prop value.
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 23.1% vs. Abbott — up 3.7% from their 19.4% season average, showing a slight increase but not significant enough for a lean.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
None of the Cincinnati batters project above a .300 xBA against Cade Horton's arsenal, and none of the boosts exceed +20, so no lean is suggested for Reds batters.
For the Cubs, Ian Happ projects a .259 xBA, which is below the .300 threshold, thus no lean is suggested.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Reds' projected K-rate against Cade Horton is 27.1%, up by 4.2% from their season average of 22.9%, making a lean on Horton's strikeout OVER a viable play.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be Cade Horton strikeout OVER - the Reds' projected K-rate jumps to 27.1% vs. Horton, up 4.2% from their 22.9% season average.
