Game Time: 8/4, 08:05PM
1. Brief Intro
As the Cincinnati Reds travel to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs, the betting landscape is notably skewed. DraftKings lists the Cubs as a -143 favorite, with the Reds at +118, and a substantial 70% of the money is backing the Cubs. This game promises intriguing pitcher-batter matchups and potential prop opportunities.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Nick Lodolo vs. Michael Soroka
Nick Lodolo (CIN):
Nick Lodolo brings a diverse pitching arsenal to the mound with a Curveball (28% usage, 82.0 mph), a Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage, 93.7 mph), a Changeup (22% usage, 87.8 mph), and a Sinker (22% usage, 93.8 mph). Known for his varied pitch mix, Lodolo challenges hitters with movement rather than overwhelming velocity. The Cubs lineup, however, has shown resilience, averaging .261 this season with a projected xBA of .262 against Lodolo's offerings.
Michael Soroka (CHC):
Michael Soroka relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 93.6 mph) and a Slurve (35% usage, 80.4 mph), complemented by a Changeup (10% usage, 84.3 mph) and a Sinker (10% usage, 93.3 mph). His style is more about precision and control, which could be problematic for the Reds, who average just .206 against Soroka’s arsenal, significantly lower than their season average of .259.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Reds lineup averages .259 this season but projects to a mere .206 against Soroka's mix. Austin Hays stands out positively with a season BA of .278 moving to an xBA of .338 (+60 points), although his strikeout rate could increase slightly. Conversely, Elly Cruz shows a notable decrease, with his season BA of .285 dropping to a projected .176 (-109 points), while his K% is set to rise by 10.5%.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Cubs' lineup, averaging .261, aligns closely with their expected performance against Lodolo’s pitches. Seiya Suzuki exemplifies a potential edge, improving from a season BA of .246 to .287 (+41 points) against Lodolo’s arsenal, showing a slight decrease in strikeouts. On the downside, Kyle Tucker’s season BA of .273 drops to .189 against Lodolo, indicating a significant decline in expected performance.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Reds' projected K-rate is 33.2% against Soroka — up 10.2% from their 23.0% season average, suggesting a potential strikeout prop value. Conversely, the Cubs' projected K-rate against Lodolo is 21.4%, slightly up by 0.7% from their 20.7% season average, indicating a more stable strikeout environment.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Austin Hays presents a potential lean with his .338 xBA against Soroka's arsenal, surpassing our .300 threshold with a significant +60 point boost. This makes him a candidate for favorable batting prop considerations.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Reds' strikeout rate of 33.2% against Soroka, up from their season average by more than 10%, indicates a strong lean towards Soroka’s strikeout OVER prop.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Austin Hays - his .338 xBA against Soroka's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +60 point boost. Additionally, our lean would be Michael Soroka's strikeout OVER - the Reds' projected K-rate jumps to 33.2% vs. Soroka, up 10.2% from their 23.0% season average.
