August 15, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Pirates vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 15)

Last updated: August 15, 2025

Game Time: 8/15, 02:20PM

Today's Setup

Today's matchup features the Pittsburgh Pirates taking on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. With the Cubs favored at -206 and the Pirates as +167 underdogs, 78% of the betting money backs the Cubs. This game presents intriguing dynamics given the pitching matchup and lineup strengths.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs Colin Rea (CHC)

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT):

Pitch Arsenal: Cutter (55% usage, 97.0 mph); Slider (45% usage, 89.9 mph)
Style: Velocity-heavy with a primary cutter focus
Matchup Insight: The Cubs lineup averages .259 this season with a projected xBA of .263 vs Ashcraft's arsenal.

Colin Rea (CHC):

Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam (43% usage, 93.8 mph); Splitter (12% usage, 87.2 mph); Slider (11% usage, 84.9 mph); Sweeper (9% usage, 82.4 mph); Curveball (9% usage, 80.1 mph); Sinker (9% usage, 93.1 mph); Cutter (7% usage, 88.0 mph)
Style: Pitch-mix artist with a diverse arsenal
Matchup Insight: The Pirates lineup averages .234 this season but projects to .250 vs Rea's arsenal.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Pirates vs Colin Rea:

Biggest Increase: Ronny Simon: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .323 (+73 points), Season K% 13.1% → Arsenal K% 12.4% (-0.7%)
Biggest Decrease: Henry Davis: Season BA .238 → xBA vs arsenal .170 (-68 points), Season K% 26.5% → Arsenal K% 38.2% (+11.7%)

For Cubs vs Braxton Ashcraft:

Biggest Increase: Dansby Swanson: Season BA .251 → xBA vs arsenal .323 (+72 points), Season K% 27.7% → Arsenal K% 22.1% (-5.6%)
Biggest Decrease: Carson Kelly: Season BA .270 → xBA vs arsenal .247 (-23 points), Season K% 15.6% → Arsenal K% 14.1% (-1.5%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Pirates: The Pirates' projected K-rate is 24.3% vs Rea — up 2.8% from their 21.5% season average.
Cubs: The Cubs' projected K-rate is 17.6% vs Ashcraft — down 2.3% from their 19.9% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Ronny Simon (.250 → .323, +73 points) meets betting lean criteria!

📢 Prop Alert: Dansby Swanson (.251 → .323, +72 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Colin Rea strikeout OVER - Pirates' K-rate jumps to 24.3% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Advantageous Players: Ronny Simon and Dansby Swanson show significant batting boosts against today's arsenals.
Strikeout Prop Opportunity: Colin Rea could capitalize on an increased strikeout rate against the Pirates.
Umpire Uncertainty: Lack of umpire data introduces variability in prop outcomes.
Overall Recommendation: Lean towards player props for Simon and Swanson, and consider Rea's strikeout potential.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Pirates vs Cubs game? A: Ronny Simon and Dansby Swanson are top betting props given their significant xBA improvements.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, contributing to prop volatility.

Q: What time is the Pirates vs Cubs game? A: 8/15, 02:20PM

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---