August 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Pirates vs Cardinals: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 28)

Last updated: August 28, 2025

Game Time: 8/28, 02:15PM

Brief Intro

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals in an intriguing NL Central matchup. According to DraftKings, the Cardinals are favored at -127, while the Pirates come in as +104 underdogs. Notably, 51% of the betting money is backing the Cardinals, highlighting a slight public lean towards St. Louis.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Braxton Ashcraft vs Miles Mikolas

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT):

Cutter (54% usage, 97.1 mph)
Slider (46% usage, 89.9 mph)

Braxton Ashcraft is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying predominantly on his cutter and slider. The Cardinals lineup this season averages .252 but projects to a lower .243 against Ashcraft’s arsenal, indicating a potential challenge in handling his pitch mix.

Miles Mikolas (STL):

Four-Seam (28% usage, 92.7 mph)
Slider (23% usage, 87.6 mph)
Curveball (17% usage, 75.7 mph)
Sinker (16% usage, 92.2 mph)
Changeup (12% usage, 85.7 mph)
Sweeper (4% usage, 80.8 mph)

Miles Mikolas brings a diverse pitch mix, focusing on a blend of fastballs and breaking balls. The Pirates lineup averages .231 this season and projects a slightly improved .232 against Mikolas’s arsenal, suggesting minor adjustments could be beneficial.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Pirates vs Miles Mikolas:

The Pirates lineup averages .231 this season but projects to improve slightly to .232 against Mikolas's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Jared Triolo: Season BA .220 → xBA vs arsenal .258 (+38 points), Season K% 19.0% → Arsenal K% 18.6% (-0.4%)
Biggest Decrease: Oneil Cruz: Season BA .272 → xBA vs arsenal .232 (-40 points), Season K% 26.0% → Arsenal K% 31.9% (+5.9%)

For the Cardinals vs Braxton Ashcraft:

The Cardinals lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .244 against Ashcraft’s arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Pedro Pagés: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .276 (+26 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 13.7% (-8.8%)
Biggest Decrease: Iván Herrera: Season BA .281 → xBA vs arsenal .225 (-56 points), Season K% 20.6% → Arsenal K% 23.1% (+2.5%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Pirates' projected K-rate is 26.5% vs Miles Mikolas — up 2.6% from their 23.9% season average.
The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 20.0% vs Braxton Ashcraft — down 2.5% from their 22.5% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jared Triolo (.220 → .258, +38 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Miles Mikolas strikeout OVER - Pirates' K-rate jumps to 26.5% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Jared Triolo presents a strong prop opportunity against Miles Mikolas, with a significant increase in projected batting average.
Miles Mikolas has a favorable strikeout prop opportunity with the Pirates projected to increase their K-rate.
Umpire data is unavailable, leading to uncertainty in evaluating plate tendencies.
Overall, the Cardinals hold a slight edge in the matchup due to public backing and a balanced pitching approach.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Pirates vs Cardinals game? A: Jared Triolo meets our strict betting criteria with a projected increase in batting average.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, adding an element of unpredictability to the game.

Q: What time is the Pirates vs Cardinals game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/28 at 02:15PM.

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