Game Time: 8/2, 03:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, with the game scheduled for a 3:10 PM start. The Pirates are the favorites in this matchup, with DraftKings listing them as a -208 favorite, while the Rockies stand as +168 underdogs. Interestingly, 91% of the betting money is backing the Pirates, reflecting the public's confidence in the away team.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Paul Skenes vs. Austin Gomber
Paul Skenes (PIT):
Paul Skenes, the Pirates’ promising arm, brings a diverse arsenal to the mound. His pitches include a Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 98.2 mph), Splitter (17% usage, 93.6 mph), Sweeper (15% usage, 84.5 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 88.2 mph), Sinker (7% usage, 97.7 mph), Slider (7% usage, 85.1 mph), and Curveball (4% usage, 83.5 mph). Skenes is a velocity-heavy pitcher with his fastball and splitter setting the tone. The Rockies lineup has averaged a .272 this season, but their projected xBA against Skenes’ arsenal falls to .241, indicating potential struggles against his pitch mix.
Austin Gomber (COL):
Austin Gomber will counter for the Rockies with his own mix of pitches: Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage, 89.3 mph), Curveball (25% usage, 76.0 mph), Slider (18% usage, 82.5 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 80.7 mph), and Splitter (7% usage, 81.0 mph). Known for his finesse, Gomber thrives on off-speed pitches. The Pirates have hit .240 on the season but project to .235 against Gomber’s arsenal, suggesting a slight edge for Gomber.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Pirates’ lineup, averaging .240 this season, projects to .235 against Gomber's arsenal. Notably, Jared Triolo shows the biggest increase, with a season BA of .160 skyrocketing to an xBA of .230 (+70 points), indicating a potential breakout game. Conversely, Nick Gonzales drops from a season BA of .266 to an xBA of .200 (-66 points), signaling a tough matchup.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Rockies, boasting a .273 season average, see a significant drop to a projected .242 against Skenes. Ezequiel Tovar benefits with his xBA rising from .271 to .308 (+37 points), suggesting he can handle Skenes’ velocity. Meanwhile, Thairo Estrada faces a serious decrease, with his xBA plummeting from .264 to .184 (-80 points), highlighting a challenging day at the plate.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Pirates' projected K-rate against Gomber is 26.7%, significantly up by 4.1% from their season average of 22.6%, suggesting a potential value on strikeout props. Similarly, the Rockies’ projected K-rate against Skenes rises to 24.8%, up from their season average of 20.4%, also indicating potential strikeout betting opportunities.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
None of the Pirates’ batters meet the criteria of xBA > 0.300 and a boost > +20 points. On the Rockies’ side, Ezequiel Tovar (.271 → .308, +37) meets both criteria, indicating a potential lean on his batting props.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Both teams exhibit increased strikeout rates against the opposing pitchers. The Pirates’ projected K-rate against Gomber is 26.7%, up by 4.1%, and the Rockies’ K-rate against Skenes is 24.8%, up by 4.4%. While both increases are notable, neither surpasses the 25% threshold with a >4% increase necessary for a definitive lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Ezequiel Tovar - his .308 xBA against Skenes' arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +37 point boost.
