Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Orioles vs Giants: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 29)
Last updated: August 29, 2025Game Time: 8/29, 10:15PM
Today's Setup
The Baltimore Orioles travel to San Francisco to take on the Giants in what promises to be an engaging interleague matchup. The betting line from DraftKings positions the Giants as a -163 favorite, while the Orioles are set as +133 underdogs, with a significant 71% of money backing the Giants to win.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Dean Kremer vs Robbie Ray
Dean Kremer (BAL):
Kremer brings a diverse pitch mix to the mound with the following arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage, 93.3 mph), Cutter (21% usage, 86.9 mph), Splitter (21% usage, 81.9 mph), Sinker (19% usage, 92.8 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 78.3 mph), and a rarely used Slider (0% usage, 83.9 mph). With a balanced mix of velocity and movement, Kremer is a quintessential pitch-mix artist aiming to disrupt the Giants' timing. The SF lineup averages .244 this season with a projected xBA of .245 against Kremer's arsenal.
Robbie Ray (SF):
Ray’s arsenal is velocity-centric, featuring a prominent Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage, 93.5 mph), complemented by a Slider (22% usage, 87.9 mph), Changeup (14% usage, 84.8 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 81.1 mph), and an occasional Sweeper (1% usage, 79.9 mph). His high fastball usage can be challenging for hitters who struggle with speed. The BAL lineup averages .238 this season, but a projected xBA of .242 against Ray's offerings suggests they may handle his pitches slightly better than average.
Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Orioles vs Robbie Ray:
- The Orioles lineup averages .238 this season but projects to .242 against Ray's arsenal.
- Samuel Basallo shows the biggest increase: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .291 (+41 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 19.2% (-3.3%)
- Luis Vázquez experiences the biggest decrease: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .175 (-75 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 27.9% (+5.4%)
For Giants vs Dean Kremer:
- The Giants lineup averages .243 this season with a projection of .245 vs Kremer's pitches.
- Casey Schmitt shows a notable increase: Season BA .240 → xBA vs arsenal .257 (+17 points), Season K% 23.1% → Arsenal K% 20.0% (-3.1%)
- Luis Matos shows the largest decrease: Season BA .206 → xBA vs arsenal .182 (-24 points), Season K% 15.3% → Arsenal K% 22.0% (+6.7%)
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Orioles' projected K-rate is 24.4% vs Robbie Ray — down 0.4% from their 24.9% season average, indicating a slight propensity for contact.
- The Giants' projected K-rate is 23.2% vs Dean Kremer — up 0.9% from their 22.3% season average, suggesting increased strikeout potential.
Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Samuel Basallo (.250 → .291, +41 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Dean Kremer strikeout OVER - Giants' K-rate jumps to 23.2% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Samuel Basallo is a prime candidate for batting props, showing a significant xBA increase.
- Dean Kremer could be a strikeout prop target given the Giants' projected K-rate increase.
- Umpire assignment is pending, adding an unpredictable element to prop bets.
- Overall, consider focusing on Kremer's strikeouts and Basallo's performance for betting value.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Orioles vs Giants game? A: Samuel Basallo is a standout prop candidate with a projected xBA increase to .291.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so it's unclear how this will influence the game.
Q: What time is the Orioles vs Giants game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/29 at 10:15PM.
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