August 29, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Marlins vs Mets: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 29)

Last updated: August 29, 2025

Game Time: 8/29, 07:10PM

Today's Setup

Tonight, the Miami Marlins head to Citi Field to face the New York Mets. With the Mets listed as a −176 favorite and the Marlins as a +144 underdog, a staggering 92% of the betting money is backing the Mets. This game could hinge on the pitching duel between Eury Pérez and Jonah Tong.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Eury Pérez vs Jonah Tong

Eury Pérez (MIA):

Eury Pérez brings a varied arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage, 97.8 mph), Slider (22% usage, 86.0 mph), Curveball (10% usage, 79.7 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 89.8 mph), Sweeper (6% usage, 82.6 mph), and Sinker (1% usage, 96.6 mph). Pérez’s power pitching can challenge any lineup, but the Mets are notably adept at hitting fastballs, averaging .264 against similar pitches, with a projected xBA of .264 against Pérez’s offerings.

Jonah Tong (NYM):

Jonah Tong's mixed arsenal presents a versatile challenge for the Marlins. The Marlins lineup, which averages .250 this season, projects similarly at .250 against Tong’s pitch mix, indicating no significant deviation in performance due to Tong’s pitching style.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Marlins vs Jonah Tong: The Marlins lineup averages .250 this season and projects to maintain a .250 average against Tong. Unfortunately, no individual Marlins batter stands out for a significant change in expected performance against Tong’s arsenal.

For the Mets vs Eury Pérez: The Mets lineup improves from a .248 average to a projected .264 against Pérez’s pitches. Juan Soto shows a notable increase, improving from a .251 season BA to a projected .305 (+54 points), although his strikeout rate slightly increases from 19.4% to 20.8% (+1.4%). Conversely, Pete Alonso faces a potential struggle, with a slight BA increase (.265 → .268, +3 points) but a significant K% rise from 22.2% to 28.3% (+6.1%).

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

For the Marlins: The Marlins’ projected K-rate remains steady at 22.5% against Tong, mirroring their season average. This suggests no heightened risk or reward in strikeout bets.

For the Mets: The Mets’ projected K-rate is 22.2% against Pérez, up from their 20.6% season average, an increase of 1.6%. While not substantial, it indicates a slight risk of elevated strikeouts.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Juan Soto (.251 → .305, +54 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Juan Soto shows a strong potential batting advantage against Pérez, making him a prop target.
Pete Alonso could struggle with strikeouts, suggesting caution for his performance.
No significant K prop opportunities for either team; both maintain close to their season averages.
Umpire assignment is unknown, making additional prop bets riskier due to potential volatility.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Marlins vs Mets game? A: Juan Soto stands out with a strong projected batting advantage against Eury Pérez, making him the best prop bet.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, adding uncertainty to the game’s strikeout potential.

Q: What time is the Marlins vs Mets game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/29, 07:10PM.

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