August 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Marlins vs Mets: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 28)

Last updated: August 28, 2025

Game Time: 8/28, 07:10PM

Today's Setup

In an exciting National League East clash, the Miami Marlins (MIA) visit the New York Mets (NYM) at Citi Field. The Mets are favored in this matchup with DraftKings listing them as a -261 favorite, while the Marlins are +208 underdogs. The betting public heavily backs the Mets, with 64% of the money supporting New York.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Adam Mazur (MIA) vs Clay Holmes (NYM)

Adam Mazur (MIA):

Mazur brings a mixed arsenal to the mound, characterized by his ability to keep hitters guessing. The Mets lineup, however, averages .250 this season with a projected xBA of .250 against Mazur’s offerings.

Clay Holmes (NYM):

Holmes relies on a diverse pitch mix: Sinker (40% usage, 93.7 mph); Sweeper (19% usage, 81.8 mph); Changeup (15% usage, 88.0 mph); Slider (11% usage, 85.3 mph); Cutter (9% usage, 89.7 mph); Four-Seam (6% usage, 93.2 mph). The Marlins lineup averages .271 this season but projects to a slightly higher .284 against Holmes’ arsenal.

!Home Pitcher Pitch Mix Chart

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Marlins vs Holmes: The Marlins lineup averages .271 this season and projects to .284 against Holmes' arsenal.

Jakob Marsee: Season BA .356 → xBA vs arsenal .402 (+46 points), Season K% 21.6% → Arsenal K% 21.0% (-0.6%)
Otto Lopez: Season BA .237 → xBA vs arsenal .212 (-25 points), Season K% 13.9% → Arsenal K% 21.6% (+7.7%)

For the Mets vs Mazur: With no significant changes in the Mets lineup data, they remain at their season average of .250 against Mazur’s mixed arsenal.

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Marlins' projected K-rate is 16.3% vs Holmes — down 1.0% from their 17.4% season average, indicating lower strikeout potential.
The Mets' projected K-rate remains stable at 22.5% vs Mazur, consistent with their season average.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jakob Marsee (.356 → .402, +46 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No strikeout prop alerts qualify under our strict criteria in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Jakob Marsee presents a solid batting prop opportunity with a significant projected xBA increase.
No pitcher prop edges due to stable strikeout projections.
Umpire assignment is still pending, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Overall, the key betting opportunity lies with Jakob Marsee’s potential against Holmes' arsenal.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Marlins vs Mets game? A: Jakob Marsee stands out, meeting our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA boost.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, making it difficult to assess tendencies.

Q: What time is the Marlins vs Mets game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/28, 07:10PM.

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