Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Marlins vs Guardians: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 14)
Last updated: August 14, 2025Game Time: 8/14, 06:40PM
Brief Intro
Tonight's game features the Miami Marlins visiting the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians are slight favorites, listed at -125 by DraftKings, while the Marlins are +103 underdogs. With 58% of the money backing Cleveland, this matchup presents intriguing angles for bettors, especially when considering the pitching duel on display.
Starting Pitching Analysis
Pitching Matchup: Edward Cabrera vs Tanner Bibee
Edward Cabrera (MIA):
Edward Cabrera brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Changeup (24% usage, 93.9 mph), Curveball (24% usage, 83.7 mph), Sinker (21% usage, 96.6 mph), Slider (18% usage, 88.5 mph), and a Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage, 96.8 mph). Cabrera is a mix artist, adept at keeping hitters off balance with his varied pitch selection.
The Guardians lineup, which averages .216 this season, is projected to fare slightly better with an xBA of .243 against Cabrera's pitch mix.
Tanner Bibee (CLE):
Tanner Bibee showcases a structured pitch mix: Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage, 94.5 mph), Cutter (20% usage, 85.8 mph), Sweeper (18% usage, 83.0 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 94.2 mph), Changeup (14% usage, 81.9 mph), and a Curveball (5% usage, 79.6 mph). Bibee's approach relies on velocity and movement, challenging hitters with his fastball and cutter.
The Marlins lineup, with a season average of .267, sees an improvement to a projected .291 xBA against Bibee's offerings.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Miami vs Tanner Bibee:
- The Marlins lineup averages .267 this season but projects to .291 vs Bibee's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Jakob Marsee: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .466 (+216 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 12.4% (-10.1%)
- Biggest Decrease: Otto Lopez: Season BA .241 → xBA vs arsenal .212 (-29 points), Season K% 14.6% → Arsenal K% 18.2% (+3.6%)
For Cleveland vs Edward Cabrera:
- The Guardians lineup averages .216 this season but projects to .243 vs Cabrera's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: José Ramírez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .280 (+30 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 16.3% (-6.2%)
- Biggest Decrease: Angel Martínez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .212 (-38 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 28.2% (+5.7%)
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Marlins' projected K-rate is 17.4% vs Bibee — down 1% from their 18.4% season average, indicating fewer strikeout concerns.
- The Guardians' projected K-rate is 23.9% vs Cabrera — down 1.3% from their 25.2% season average, suggesting slightly better contact potential.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Clint Vondrak
Clint Vondrak brings a slightly hitter-friendly zone with a -5% strikeout rate and a +1% walk rate. These tendencies suggest a marginally favorable environment for batters looking to make contact and draw walks.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Agustín Ramírez (.250 → .307, +57 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: No strikeout props meet our criteria for this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Jakob Marsee presents a significant batting advantage against Bibee with a +216 point increase in xBA.
- José Ramírez offers the best contact potential for Cleveland against Cabrera.
- Umpire Clint Vondrak's profile suggests a slight edge for hitters.
- Overall, the matchup favors selective batter props, particularly for the Marlins, with no strong pitcher strikeout props.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Marlins vs Guardians game? A: Agustín Ramírez offers a strong batting prop with his significant boost in xBA.
Q: Is Clint Vondrak a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: No, Clint Vondrak leans slightly hitter-friendly with a -5% strikeout rate.
Q: What time is the Marlins vs Guardians game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/14, 06:40PM.
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