Game Time: 8/2, 01:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Los Angeles Dodgers head to Tropicana Field to face the Tampa Bay Rays in what promises to be a tight matchup between two talented squads. DraftKings lists the Dodgers as a -136 favorite, with the Rays as a +112 underdog, and a significant 85% of the money is backing the Dodgers. This game will feature a compelling pitching duel and intriguing lineup dynamics that could influence the betting outcomes.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Blake Snell vs. Drew Rasmussen
Blake Snell (LAD):
Snell's arsenal includes a Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 94.8 mph), Curveball (25% usage, 81.2 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 86.2 mph), and Slider (9% usage, 88.6 mph). Snell leans heavily on his fastball and curveball combination, making him a velocity-heavy pitcher. The Rays lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .222 against Snell’s varied arsenal, indicating potential struggles against his pitch mix.
Drew Rasmussen (TB):
Rasmussen's pitching arsenal features a Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage, 95.8 mph), Cutter (31% usage, 90.3 mph), Sinker (25% usage, 95.4 mph), Sweeper (5% usage, 84.7 mph), Curveball (4% usage, 80.5 mph), and Changeup (1% usage, 89.3 mph). He presents a balanced pitch mix, which could challenge opposing batters. The Dodgers lineup averages .262 on the season but projects to .281 against Rasmussen's arsenal, highlighting a slight batting edge for the Dodgers.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Dodgers lineup averages .262 this season but projects to .281 against Rasmussen's arsenal. Teoscar Hernández emerges with the biggest increase in xBA, improving from a season average of .250 to a projected .330 against Rasmussen’s pitches (+80 points), with a K% reduction from 22.5% to 19.8% (-2.7%). Conversely, Freddie Freeman shows a decrease, with his season BA of .299 dropping to .242 against this arsenal (-57 points), though his K% improves significantly, dropping from 23.1% to 13.7% (-9.4%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Rays lineup, averaging .253 this season, projects to struggle with a .222 xBA against Snell's arsenal. Ha-Seong Kim experiences the most significant decrease in performance, with a projected xBA of .219 from a season average of .304 (-85 points), and a slight increase in K% from 28.8% to 30.5% (+1.7%). Christopher Morel, although seeing a marginal increase in xBA from .212 to .230 (+18 points), faces a steep rise in K% from 33.5% to 40.2% (+6.7%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 17.8% versus Rasmussen, down 2.4% from their 20.3% season average, suggesting a potential contact play. Meanwhile, the Rays' projected K-rate rises to 25.4% against Snell, up 2.7% from their 22.7% season average, indicating a possible strikeout prop value on the Over.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
While Teoscar Hernández shows a significant xBA boost against Rasmussen, his projected xBA of .330 is above the .300 threshold with an impressive +80-point increase. This makes him a potential batting lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Rays' projected K-rate against Snell is 25.4%, which is above the 25% threshold, although the increase is only 2.7%, which is less than the 4% needed for a lean. Thus, no strikeout prop is recommended based on the data.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Teoscar Hernández - his .330 xBA against Rasmussen’s arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +80-point boost. No significant strikeout prop is recommended as the criteria were not fully met.
