August 29, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 29)

Last updated: August 29, 2025

Game Time: 8/29, 10:10PM

Brief Intro

The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers in a high-stakes matchup. With the Dodgers favored at −199 and the Diamondbacks at +161 according to DraftKings, 92% of bettors are backing the LA Dodgers. This game features intriguing pitching matchups and potential prop betting opportunities.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Zac Gallen vs Blake Snell

Zac Gallen (AZ):

Zac Gallen boasts a diverse arsenal with the following pitch types: Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.4 mph), Curveball (24% usage, 81.1 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 86.6 mph), Slider (7% usage, 87.9 mph), Cutter (6% usage, 89.4 mph), and Sinker (2% usage, 93.3 mph). Gallen's mix of velocity and movement makes him a versatile threat on the mound. However, the Dodgers lineup, traditionally strong, manages an average of .254 this season but projects a slightly lower xBA of .240 against Gallen's varied pitches.

Blake Snell (LAD):

Blake Snell counters with his own impressive arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 95.4 mph), Changeup (22% usage, 85.7 mph), Curveball (20% usage, 80.8 mph), and Slider (11% usage, 88.5 mph). Snell uses a velocity-heavy approach that could challenge the Diamondbacks, who average .251 this season but project an xBA of .244 against Snell's pitches.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Away Team vs Home Pitcher: The Diamondbacks lineup averages .251 this season but projects to .244 vs Blake Snell's arsenal. Notably:

Corbin Carroll shines with a season BA of .256 → xBA vs Snell .289 (+33 points), Season K% 24.7% → Arsenal K% 27.2% (+2.5%)
Geraldo Perdomo struggles with a season BA of .293 → xBA vs Snell .270 (-23 points), Season K% 11.2% → Arsenal K% 10.1% (-1.1%)

For Home Team vs Away Pitcher: The Dodgers lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .240 vs Zac Gallen's arsenal. Key shifts include:

Mookie Betts improves with a season BA of .247 → xBA vs Gallen .274 (+27 points), Season K% 10.1% → Arsenal K% 11.5% (+1.4%)
Freddie Freeman drops with a season BA of .302 → xBA vs Gallen .248 (-54 points), Season K% 21.4% → Arsenal K% 14.2% (-7.2%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Diamondbacks' projected K-rate is 21.4% vs Blake Snell — down 0.3% from their 21.7% season average. This suggests a potential for increased contact.

The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 24.6% vs Zac Gallen — up 3.3% from their 21.3% season average, indicating a potential spike in strikeouts.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Corbin Carroll (.256 → .289, +33 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Zac Gallen strikeout OVER - Dodgers' K-rate jumps to 24.6% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Corbin Carroll presents a strong batting edge against Blake Snell, making him a viable prop candidate.
Zac Gallen has a promising strikeout opportunity against a Dodgers lineup with an increased K-rate.
Umpire assignment remains uncertain, adding a layer of unpredictability to prop bets.
Overall, the statistical edges favor individual prop plays over team outcomes.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the AZ vs LAD game? A: Corbin Carroll shows a significant batting advantage, making him the top betting prop.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, which adds unpredictability.

Q: What time is the AZ vs LAD game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/29 at 10:10PM.

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