August 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 28)

Last updated: August 28, 2025

Game Time: 8/28, 02:10PM

Today's Setup

The Arizona Diamondbacks face off against the Milwaukee Brewers in a tight matchup where the Brewers are favored. DraftKings lists the Brewers as a −172 favorite with the Diamondbacks at +140, and an overwhelming 78% of the betting money is backing the Brewers.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Nabil Crismatt vs Jose Quintana

Nabil Crismatt (AZ):

Changeup (38% usage, 81.6 mph)
Sinker (25% usage, 89.6 mph)
Curveball (16% usage, 73.7 mph)
Slider (10% usage, 81.9 mph)
Four-Seam (8% usage, 88.8 mph)
Cutter (3% usage, 89.4 mph)

Crismatt's pitch mix indicates a crafty pitcher relying heavily on off-speed and breaking pitches. The Brewers' lineup averages .265 this season with a projected xBA of .249 versus Crismatt's arsenal, suggesting a potential edge for Crismatt in limiting hits.

Jose Quintana (MIL):

Sinker (44% usage, 90.5 mph)
Changeup (22% usage, 85.6 mph)
Curveball (15% usage, 78.1 mph)
Four-Seam (12% usage, 90.4 mph)
Slurve (8% usage, 78.4 mph)

Quintana leans on his sinker and changeup, creating a ground-ball heavy approach. The Diamondbacks average .246 this season but project to .245 against Quintana’s pitch set, indicating a marginal performance decrease.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Diamondbacks vs Jose Quintana:

The Diamondbacks lineup averages .246 this season but projects to .245 vs Quintana's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Jr. Gurriel: Season BA .245 → xBA vs arsenal .286 (+41 points), Season K% 14.2% → Arsenal K% 9.6% (-4.6%)
Biggest Decrease: Blaze Alexander: Season BA .223 → xBA vs arsenal .157 (-66 points), Season K% 32.1% → Arsenal K% 37.9% (+5.8%)

For the Brewers vs Nabil Crismatt:

The Brewers lineup averages .265 this season but projects to .249 vs Crismatt's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .237 → xBA vs arsenal .290 (+53 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.4% (-1.5%)
Biggest Decrease: Andruw Monasterio: Season BA .284 → xBA vs arsenal .219 (-65 points), Season K% 23.2% → Arsenal K% 13.3% (-9.9%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Diamondbacks' projected K-rate is 20.0% vs Quintana — down 1.0% from their 21.1% season average.
The Brewers' projected K-rate is 18.4% vs Crismatt — down 1.7% from their 20.2% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jr. Gurriel (.245 → .286, +41 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant team strikeout rate jumps meet our betting threshold today.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Jr. Gurriel presents a strong batting prop opportunity against Quintana.
Andrew Vaughn shows potential for hitting value against Crismatt’s pitching style.
The absence of an umpire assignment adds uncertainty to prop bets.
No standout strikeout prop opportunities based on current data.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Diamondbacks vs Brewers game? A: Jr. Gurriel stands out as a strong betting prop with a significant increase in projected batting average.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is yet to be announced, leading to uncertainty in this area.

Q: What time is the Diamondbacks vs Brewers game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/28 at 02:10PM.

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