August 14, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Sarah Mitchell

Sarah has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

CHC vs TOR: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 14)

Last updated: August 14, 2025

Game Time: TBD

Today's Setup

This tilt between the Chicago Cubs (CHC) and the Toronto Blue Jays (TOR) promises to be intriguing, especially with two strong pitchers taking the mound. While there is currently no betting line available, the matchup itself offers plenty of intrigue for bettors, with the Cubs' lineup facing a tough test against a formidable Blue Jays' pitching ace.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Matthew Boyd vs Max Scherzer

Matthew Boyd (CHC):

Boyd relies heavily on his fastball and changeup, featuring a pitch mix of Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 93.3 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 78.8 mph), Slider (16% usage, 81.6 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 73.7 mph), and Sinker (4% usage, 91.9 mph). This makes him a velocity-heavy pitcher with a knack for mixing speeds effectively.

The Blue Jays lineup averages .266 this season with a projected xBA of .266 vs Boyd's arsenal.

Max Scherzer (TOR):

Scherzer, known for his high strikeout potential, utilizes a diverse arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 93.7 mph), Slider (25% usage, 86.6 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 85.2 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 76.5 mph), and Cutter (2% usage, 87.3 mph). His pitch mix marks him as a seasoned strikeout artist.

The Cubs lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .238 vs Scherzer's arsenal.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For CHC vs Max Scherzer:

The Cubs lineup, with a season average of .255, projects to .238 vs Scherzer.
Biggest Increase: None qualified with significant positive change.
Biggest Decrease: Kyle Tucker: Season BA .267 → xBA vs Scherzer .192 (-75 points), Season K% 14.4% → Arsenal K% 18.4% (+4.0%)

For TOR vs Matthew Boyd:

The Blue Jays lineup averages .290 this season, projecting to .266 vs Boyd.
Biggest Increase: Jr. Guerrero: Season BA .299 → xBA vs Boyd .324 (+25 points), Season K% 13.6% → Arsenal K% 14.7% (+1.1%)
Biggest Decrease: Tyler Heineman: Season BA .339 → xBA vs Boyd .214 (-125 points), Season K% 18.8% → Arsenal K% 22.3% (+3.5%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Cubs' projected K-rate is 23.7% vs Scherzer — up 4.3% from their 19.3% season average.
The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 19.7% vs Boyd — up 1.0% from their 18.7% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Chris Segal

Chris Segal is slightly pitcher-friendly with a +8% strikeouts boost and a +4% walks boost, indicating mixed tendencies. This suggests a nuanced impact where pitchers might benefit from extra strikeout calls, but hitters could also draw more walks.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jr. Guerrero (.299 → .324, +25 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant strikeout prop alerts as neither team meets the strict criteria for a K-rate jump over 25% with an increase of more than 4%.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Key Player Advantages: Jr. Guerrero shows a strong edge against Boyd, while Kyle Tucker faces a tough matchup against Scherzer.
Pitcher Prop Opportunities: No significant strikeout props due to lack of criteria match.
Umpire Impact Assessment: Chris Segal's tendencies could create mixed opportunities for both pitchers and hitters.
Overall Betting Recommendation: With Jr. Guerrero showing a strong edge, consider player prop bets on his performance while being cautious of strikeout props.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the CHC vs TOR game? A: Jr. Guerrero shows a significant edge against Boyd, meeting our strict betting criteria.

Q: Is Chris Segal a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Chris Segal has mixed tendencies with a +8% strikeout rate and a +4% walk rate.

Q: What time is the CHC vs TOR game? A: Game time is not yet determined.

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