Game Time: 8/4, 10:10PM
1. Brief Intro
The St. Louis Cardinals head to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers in an intriguing matchup. DraftKings lists the LA Dodgers as a -189 favorite while the St. Louis Cardinals are +153 underdogs, with a significant 85% of the betting money backing the Dodgers. This game features a fascinating pitching duel and key lineup matchups that could sway bettors in either direction.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Sonny Gray vs. Tyler Glasnow
Sonny Gray (STL):
Gray's arsenal is diverse, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage, 91.6 mph), Sweeper (20% usage, 85.0 mph), Sinker (19% usage, 92.2 mph), Curveball (18% usage, 80.1 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 88.2 mph), Changeup (8% usage, 86.3 mph), and a Slider (2% usage, 84.3 mph). Known for his pitch-mix artistry, Gray's varied offerings look to challenge the Dodgers' lineup that averages .265 this season with a projected xBA of .256 against his arsenal.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD):
Glasnow relies on power with his repertoire, which includes a Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 95.8 mph), Slider (22% usage, 89.9 mph), Curveball (20% usage, 82.3 mph), and Sinker (19% usage, 96.2 mph). The Cardinals lineup, with a season average of .254, projects to a .246 xBA against Glasnow's high-velocity offerings, suggesting potential struggles against his heat.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Cardinals lineup averages .254 this season but projects to .246 against Glasnow's arsenal. Notable changes include Nolan Gorman: Season BA .222 → xBA vs. arsenal .249 (+27 points), Season K% 30.5% → Arsenal K% 33.4% (+2.9%). Conversely, Iván Herrera sees a decrease: Season BA .301 → xBA vs. arsenal .228 (-73 points), Season K% 19.2% → Arsenal K% 23.9% (+4.7%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Dodgers lineup averages .265 this season but projects to .256 against Gray's arsenal. Michael Conforto shows improvement: Season BA .195 → xBA vs. arsenal .246 (+51 points), Season K% 23.1% → Arsenal K% 24.9% (+1.8%). However, Freddie Freeman's numbers drop: Season BA .302 → xBA vs. arsenal .240 (-62 points), Season K% 23.4% → Arsenal K% 21.8% (-1.6%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 22.8% vs. Glasnow, up 1.6% from their 21.3% season average. This suggests a moderate increase in strikeout potential. Meanwhile, the Dodgers' projected K-rate is 21.8% vs. Gray, up 2.0% from their 19.8% season average, indicating a slight rise in K opportunities.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No Cardinals batters have an xBA over .300 against Glasnow, and no boosts exceed +20 points, so there are no strong betting leans for the St. Louis lineup. On the Dodgers side, Michael Conforto's xBA of .246 does not surpass our .300 threshold, and the boost is +51 points, but still below the necessary criteria.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither the Cardinals nor the Dodgers exhibit an arsenal K% greater than 25% with an increase over 4%, thus not meeting our criteria for strikeout prop leans.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
