August 15, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Brewers vs Reds: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 15)

Last updated: August 15, 2025

Game Time: 8/15, 06:40PM

Brief Intro

The Milwaukee Brewers face off against the Cincinnati Reds, a matchup that sees Milwaukee as the favorite. DraftKings lists the Brewers at -145, while the Reds are underdogs at +119, with a significant 72% of the money backing Milwaukee. This game offers intriguing pitching matchups and batting edges worth exploring for savvy bettors.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs Nick Martinez (CIN)

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL):

Four-Seam Fastball (55% usage, 99.3 mph), Slider (27% usage, 94.1 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 87.3 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 92.2 mph)

Misiorowski is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying on a high-octane fastball and a power slider. The Reds lineup, however, averages .261 this season with a projected xBA of .241 against Misiorowski's arsenal.

Nick Martinez (CIN):

Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage, 92.5 mph), Cutter (21% usage, 88.9 mph), Changeup (19% usage, 78.5 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 92.4 mph), Slider (12% usage, 84.8 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 79.6 mph)

Martinez uses a diverse pitch mix, leaning on both speed and off-speed pitches. The Brewers lineup averages .260 this season but projects to .268 against Martinez's arsenal.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Brewers vs Nick Martinez: The Brewers lineup averages .260 this season but projects to .269 against Martinez's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .242 → xBA vs arsenal .278 (+36 points), Season K% 19.5% → Arsenal K% 17.1% (-2.4%)
Biggest Decrease: Sal Frelick: Season BA .296 → xBA vs arsenal .259 (-37 points), Season K% 12.9% → Arsenal K% 13.6% (+0.7%)

For Reds vs Jacob Misiorowski: The Reds lineup averages .262 this season but projects to .241 against Misiorowski's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: None
Biggest Decrease: Elly Cruz: Season BA .277 → xBA vs arsenal .238 (-39 points), Season K% 25.1% → Arsenal K% 32.1% (+7.0%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Brewers' projected K-rate is 18.0% vs Martinez — down 1.1% from their 19.1% season average.
The Reds' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Misiorowski — up 2.8% from their 21.8% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Andrew Vaughn (.242 → .278, +36 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant strikeout prop opportunities as neither team's K-rate increase meets our thresholds for a strong lean.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Andrew Vaughn shows a significant advantage against Nick Martinez, hitting above his season average.
Jacob Misiorowski's arsenal poses a challenge for Reds hitters, notably Elly Cruz.
Umpire information is unavailable, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Overall, Andrew Vaughn represents the best prop opportunity in this matchup.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Brewers vs Reds game? A: Andrew Vaughn is the standout betting prop with a projected xBA of .278 against Nick Martinez.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to assess tendencies.

Q: What time is the Brewers vs Reds game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/15 at 06:40PM.

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