August 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Braves vs Phillies: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 28)

Last updated: August 28, 2025

Game Time: 8/28, 06:45PM

Brief Intro

The Atlanta Braves head to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies in a divisional clash. The Phillies are favored at -193, with the Braves as +157 underdogs according to DraftKings, with 67% of the money backing the home team. This game presents intriguing pitcher-batter matchups, with Cal Quantrill taking the mound for Atlanta against Aaron Nola for Philadelphia.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Cal Quantrill (ATL) vs Aaron Nola (PHI)

Cal Quantrill (ATL):

Cutter (22% usage, 88.9 mph)
Splitter (21% usage, 86.3 mph)
Four-Seam (21% usage, 93.6 mph)
Sinker (16% usage, 93.8 mph)
Curveball (12% usage, 79.9 mph)
Slider (8% usage, 85.0 mph)
Changeup (0% usage, 87.7 mph)

Cal Quantrill offers a diverse pitch mix, leaning on his cutter and splitter to keep hitters off balance. The Phillies lineup has a batting average of .259 this season and a projected xBA of .270 against Quantrill's arsenal, indicating potential troubles for Quantrill.

Aaron Nola (PHI):

Curveball (30% usage, 78.1 mph)
Four-Seam (26% usage, 91.6 mph)
Sinker (19% usage, 90.4 mph)
Changeup (15% usage, 84.6 mph)
Cutter (10% usage, 86.2 mph)

Aaron Nola's command of his curveball and four-seam fastball makes him a formidable opponent. The Braves lineup averages .247 this season and projects a slight increase to .247 against Nola's pitches, suggesting a balanced matchup.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Atlanta vs Aaron Nola:

The Braves lineup averages .247 this season but projects to .247 vs Nola's arsenal.
II Harris: Season BA .251 → xBA vs arsenal .307 (+56 points), Season K% 19.5% → Arsenal K% 19.1% (-0.4%)
Nick Allen: Season BA .220 → xBA vs arsenal .170 (-50 points), Season K% 23.9% → Arsenal K% 27.2% (+3.3%)

For Philadelphia vs Cal Quantrill:

The Phillies lineup averages .260 this season and projects to .270 vs Quantrill's arsenal.
Bryce Harper: Season BA .267 → xBA vs arsenal .308 (+41 points), Season K% 21.0% → Arsenal K% 15.3% (-5.7%)
J.T. Realmuto: Season BA .270 → xBA vs arsenal .240 (-30 points), Season K% 23.0% → Arsenal K% 28.8% (+5.8%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Braves' projected K-rate is 22.6% vs Nola — up 2.1% from their 20.6% season average.
The Phillies' projected K-rate is 19.6% vs Quantrill — down 1.1% from their 20.7% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: TBA Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: II Harris (.251 → .307, +56 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Aaron Nola strikeout OVER - Braves' K-rate jumps to 22.6% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

II Harris shows a significant batting advantage against Nola's arsenal, making him a strong prop candidate.
Aaron Nola's matchup against the Braves presents a favorable strikeout opportunity.
With the umpire yet to be announced, the potential impact on walks and strikeouts remains uncertain.
Overall, focus on Aaron Nola's strikeout prop and II Harris' elevated batting potential for betting opportunities.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Braves vs Phillies game? A: II Harris shows a strong edge with a projected xBA of .307 against Nola's pitches.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so current tendencies are unknown.

Q: What time is the Braves vs Phillies game? A: The game starts at 8/28, 06:45PM.

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