Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Braves vs Mets: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 14)
Last updated: August 14, 2025Game Time: 8/14, 07:10PM
Matchup Setup
The Atlanta Braves head to New York to take on the Mets in what promises to be a captivating matchup. According to DraftKings, the Mets are favored with a -181 line, while the Braves sit as +148 underdogs. With 73% of the betting money backing the Mets, the pressure is on for Atlanta to defy the odds.
Starting Pitching Analysis
Pitching Matchup: Bryce Elder vs Kodai Senga
Bryce Elder (ATL):
- Arsenal: Sinker (42% usage, 91.3 mph), Slider (37% usage, 84.4 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 86.3 mph), Four-Seam (10% usage, 92.2 mph)
Bryce Elder is a pitcher who relies heavily on his sinker and slider, using them to generate ground balls and weak contact. However, the New York lineup has been hitting well against similar pitches, averaging .286 with a projected xBA of .286 against Elder's mix.
Kodai Senga (NYM):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam (44% usage, 94.6 mph), Cutter (29% usage, 89.7 mph), Slider (9% usage, 83.1 mph), Sinker (8% usage, 88.6 mph), Sweeper (7% usage, 79.3 mph), Curveball (2% usage, 68.9 mph)
Kodai Senga's diverse arsenal makes him a formidable opponent. His ability to mix pitches keeps hitters off balance, and the Braves have struggled against his type of repertoire, with a season average of .243 projected to dip slightly to .243 against Senga's offerings.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Atlanta vs Kodai Senga: The Braves lineup averages .242 this season but projects to only .243 against Senga's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Marcell Ozuna: Season BA .240 → xBA vs arsenal .299 (+59 points), Season K% 22.1% → Arsenal K% 23.2% (+1.1%)
- Biggest Decrease: Jurickson Profar: Season BA .245 → xBA vs arsenal .200 (-45 points), Season K% 16.8% → Arsenal K% 13.3% (-3.5%)
For New York vs Bryce Elder: The Mets lineup averages .245 but projects to a higher .286 against Elder's pitches.
- Biggest Increase: Brett Baty: Season BA .236 → xBA vs arsenal .320 (+84 points), Season K% 24.0% → Arsenal K% 19.0% (-5.0%)
- Biggest Decrease: None
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Braves: Their projected K-rate is 22.3% vs Senga — up 0.8% from their 21.5% season average.
- Mets: Their projected K-rate is 19.0% vs Elder — slightly down 0.3% from their 19.3% season average.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Mark Ripperger
Mark Ripperger is the umpire for today's game. His strikeout boost is +4%, while his walk boost is -3%, indicating a slightly pitcher-friendly environment.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Brett Baty (.236 → .320, +84 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Kodai Senga strikeout OVER - Braves' K-rate jumps to 22.3% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Brett Baty shows a significant batting advantage against Bryce Elder, making him a strong candidate for a player prop.
- Kodai Senga's strikeout potential is elevated by a projected increase in the Braves' K-rate, suggesting value in a strikeout prop.
- Umpire Mark Ripperger's tendencies favor pitchers slightly, enhancing Senga's chances for a high strikeout game.
- Betting on Mets' success is aligned with public sentiment and statistical edges.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Braves vs Mets game? A: Brett Baty is a standout prop candidate with his projected batting average increase against Elder.
Q: Is Mark Ripperger a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Yes, slightly pitcher-friendly with +4% strikeouts and -3% walks.
Q: What time is the Braves vs Mets game? A: The game starts at 7:10 PM.
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