Detroit's Puck Control Meets St. Louis's Power Play in a Near-Even Game

This looks like a near coin flip on the price, with Detroit's underlying numbers pulling one way and St. Louis's special teams and goaltending numbers pulling the other. The Blues are a slight consensus favorite at -115 on the moneyline, with the Red Wings at -103, for a 1:00 PM ET start at Little Caesars Arena. The factors most likely to decide it are how much of the puck Detroit controls and what happens when penalties are called.

Detroit has the better territorial profile. Its shot share is 54.3%, rank 8, and it allows 25.2 shots on goal per game. St. Louis sits at a 49.5% shot share, rank 17. The Blues have gotten more from their shots, though: a team save percentage of 90.1%, rank 7, and a shooting percentage of 11%, against Detroit's 89.3%, rank 14, and 9%. With 13 games played by each team, those percentages are volatile, and the volume edge may be the steadier piece of evidence.

Special teams is the clearest mismatch. St. Louis converts 25.7% of power plays, rank 8, while Detroit's penalty kill succeeds 66.7% of the time, rank 28. In the other direction, Detroit's power play is 21.7%, rank 14, against a Blues penalty kill at 85.3%, rank 6. Both teams allow 2.92 goals per game, rank 8, so neither defense stands apart.

Detroit's roster is unsettled. Dylan Larkin is on injured reserve in the injury table, and ESPN reports the team suspended him without pay after he said he no longer wanted to play for Detroit. The Red Wings still won 4-1 on Thursday behind a Viktor Arvidsson hat trick and have won three straight at home. Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton are each 10 days to two weeks from returning, and Albert Johansson will miss at least three more games. For St. Louis, Colton Parayko is day-to-day and reported as probable.

The market is quiet where it matters. The moneyline moved toward St. Louis, with Detroit's implied win probability going from 51.7% to 50.7%, which the sheet labels minor. Money is 70% on the Blues on the moneyline and 96% on the Blues at -1.5, but tickets are split 50% each way on both. The total is 5.5, unchanged from the open, with Over -125 and Under +103, even though 94% of bets and 95% of money are on the Over. St. Louis has gone over in five straight road games, though it has gone under in its last three overall.

Starting goalies are not known, which matters given how much of the Blues' case rests on save percentage. Overall the evidence is balanced: Detroit has the possession edge, St. Louis has the special-teams and goaltending numbers, and the price reflects that.