Dallas defence and penalty kill meet a Columbus team that beat them twice

Dallas is a clear favourite, yet Columbus won both completed meetings: 5-1 in Dallas on 2025-10-22 and 1-0 in Columbus on 2026-01-23. Tonight's question is whether Dallas's run prevention and penalty kill outweigh a short-handed centre group, and whether Columbus can score at all. Both teams lost last time out on two days' rest; Dallas fell 2-5 at home, Columbus 2-3 on the road.

Dallas's case rests on defence. It allows 2.31 goals per game (rank 2) and 21.8 shots on goal per game, its team save percentage is 90.8% (rank 2), and its penalty kill is 93.5% (rank 1). Its shot share of 54.6% ranks 6. The offence is ordinary: 2.69 goals per game, rank 19. The profile is built on suppression, not scoring.

Columbus matches up poorly on the numbers that matter most here. Its power play converts 13.3% (rank 29) and it meets the rank 1 penalty kill. It scores 2.55 goals per game (rank 21), 2.2 per game over the last 10, and its shot share is 47.9% (rank 24). Defensively it allows 3.27 goals per game, rank 15. With only 11 games played, these rates are noisy, and Dallas's 13 are not much deeper.

Dallas's injury list is the main counterweight. Radek Faksa is out with a lower-body injury, and a report says he will likely miss another week. Oskar Back and Matt Duchene are on injured reserve, Duchene for about three months after core surgery. That is three centres unavailable, and some of that is recent enough that season numbers may only partly capture it.

The moneyline is Dallas -187, Columbus +157, against an opening -182 and +151, with no movement of note. Support is lopsided: 92% of moneyline bets and 95% of the money are on Dallas. The puck line is more divided. Dallas -1.5 is priced at +140, and 64% of spread bets are on Columbus +1.5 while 90% of the money is on Dallas. Tickets and dollars point in opposite directions there.

The total is 5.5, unchanged from the open, with Over -102 and Under -118. Over has 88% of bets and 90% of the money, yet Dallas has gone over the closing total in 23.1% of games this season, and Columbus in 45.5%. Dallas does have three straight overs, a run that describes recent games, not a forecast. The heavy Over support sits against Dallas's goal-prevention profile, even though Columbus allows 3.27 goals per game. Columbus has covered the puck line three straight as an away underdog, while its season mark against the spread is 4-7. The starting goalies are not known.