Ottawa Favoured in San Jose After Losing 6-2 Earlier This Month

Ottawa is the moneyline favourite at -148 in San Jose, yet the last meeting went the other way: the Sharks won 6-2 on October 22 at Ottawa. The central question is whether Ottawa's modest season-long edge justifies a price that has moved toward the Senators since opening, given a long absence list and a four-game losing run in road games after a loss. Both teams have played 14 games, so every number here is a small sample.

Season numbers favour Ottawa slightly. The Senators score 3.14 goals per game (rank 12) and allow 3.14 (rank 12); San Jose scores 2.86 (rank 16) and allows 3.36 (rank 18). Ottawa's standings points percentage is 60.7% (rank 11) against San Jose's 53.6% (rank 13). Neither side controls shots: shot share is 48.5% for Ottawa (rank 22) and 47.5% for San Jose (rank 25). San Jose's team save percentage of 90.1% (rank 6) is higher than Ottawa's 89.8% (rank 10).

Special teams give San Jose its clearest angle. Its power play converts 24.5% (rank 10) against an Ottawa penalty kill at 76.9% (rank 19). Ottawa's power play converts 13.6% (rank 28) against a San Jose penalty kill of 83% (rank 9). Ottawa has also allowed 3.5 goals per game over its last 10, worse than its 3.14 season figure.

Ottawa's absences are heavier. Hayden Hodgson is suspended, Warren Foegele and William Eklund are on injured reserve, and Andre Burakovsky is day-to-day. Linus Ullmark is also on injured reserve, expected to miss one to two weeks per the report. San Jose has Alexander Wennberg and Igor Chernyshov on injured reserve. Ottawa lost 5-6 on the road last time out, while San Jose won 3-2 at home behind two goals from Will Smith.

The moneyline opened at San Jose +109 and Ottawa -131; it now reads San Jose +125, Ottawa -148. The sheet labels the move notable: San Jose's implied win probability went from 47.8% to 44.4%. Bets (75% Ottawa) and money (77% Ottawa) are on the same side as the move, the ordinary direction. The puck line shows a different split: Ottawa -1.5 at +162 and San Jose +1.5 at -198, with 86% of bets and 90% of money on San Jose.

The total sits at 6.5, unchanged from the open, with Over -107 and Under -113, even though 98% of bets and 99% of money are on the Over. That support did not move the price. San Jose has failed to cover the puck line in five straight home games, and Ottawa has lost three straight on the road; those are descriptions of what happened, not forecasts. The starting goalies are not known.