Colorado's Offense Against a Tired Calgary Team With a Hot Power Play

Colorado is a heavy home favorite, with a moneyline of -417, against a Calgary team playing the second game of a back-to-back and its third in four nights. The Flames won 6-2 at home over Seattle on Friday, while Colorado has had three days off after a 5-2 home win. Colorado also won all four meetings in our table, the latest 7-3 at Calgary on 2026-10-09. The two factors most likely to decide this are whether Colorado's scoring meets a vulnerable Calgary defense, and whether Calgary's power play can offset a tough schedule spot.

Colorado scores 4.15 goals per game, rank 2, while Calgary allows 3.62 per game, rank 22. That is the clearest gap between them. Colorado also has the better shot share, 52.3% (rank 10) against 49.2% (rank 19). One caution: Colorado's shooting percentage is 13.6% while its team save percentage is 89.2%, rank 17, so part of the scoring rests on finishing. Both teams have played only 13 games, so these numbers are still noisy.

Calgary's best case is special teams. Its power play converts at 33.3%, rank 3, and Colorado's penalty kill succeeds at 76.9%, rank 19. Calgary has also tightened up lately, allowing 3.1 goals per game over its last 10 games against 3.62 for the season, although its team save percentage is 88%, rank 27. Matt Coronato had a career-high four points on Friday. Against that, Calgary has lost four straight road games in non-division, in-conference play.

Colorado's notable absence is defenseman Josh Manson, out with an ankle injury and expected to miss the next eight weeks. Logan O'Connor is also out, for personal reasons. Colorado's goals allowed already sit at 3.23 per game, rank 14, a middling mark. Calgary is without Brennan Othmann (upper body) and Connor Zary (knee surgery).

The moneyline moved from -349 to -417 on Colorado, taking its implied win probability from 77.7% to 80.7%. The sheet calls that move minor, so it adds little on its own. Bets are 97% on Colorado and money is 93%, the ordinary direction. The spread is Colorado -2.5, with Colorado at +105 and Calgary at -127. The total is 6.5, unchanged from the open, with Over -108 and Under -112. Over holds 97% of bets and 98% of money. Colorado has gone over in four straight games and in 69.2% of its games this season, against 46.2% for Calgary. Those are descriptions of what has happened, not forecasts.

The evidence mostly agrees on Colorado's offensive edge and Calgary's schedule disadvantage. The conflict is Calgary's power play against Colorado's penalty kill, plus Colorado's high shooting percentage. Starting goalies are not known.