Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Cardinals vs Reds: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 29)
Last updated: August 29, 2025Game Time: 8/29, 06:40PM
Brief Intro
The St. Louis Cardinals face off against the Cincinnati Reds in a matchup that's drawing significant betting interest. DraftKings currently lists the Reds as slight favorites at -126, while the Cardinals are underdogs at +104. Notably, 82% of the betting action is favoring the Reds, highlighting a strong public leaning towards Cincinnati.Starting Pitching Analysis
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs Zack Littell (CIN)Matthew Liberatore (STL):
Matthew Liberatore brings a diverse pitch arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage, 94.0 mph), Slider (22% usage, 86.4 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 77.5 mph), Changeup (12% usage, 88.7 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 90.1 mph), and Sinker (11% usage, 94.1 mph). As a pitcher with a balanced mix of velocity and movement, Liberatore can challenge hitters in different ways. However, the Reds lineup, which averages .259 this season, projects a slightly lower xBA of .244 against his arsenal, indicating potential difficulties for Cincinnati's hitters.Zack Littell (CIN):
Zack Littell counters with his own varied repertoire: Slider (29% usage, 87.3 mph), Splitter (28% usage, 83.5 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage, 92.2 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 91.5 mph), and Sweeper (5% usage, 79.7 mph). Littell's ability to mix speeds and movements makes him a challenging opponent. The Cardinals lineup, which posts a season average of .253, anticipates a drop to a .227 xBA against Littell's pitches, suggesting a tough evening at the plate for St. Louis.Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting EdgesFor STL vs Zack Littell: The Cardinals lineup averages .253 this season but projects to a .227 xBA against Zack Littell's arsenal. Key performers exhibit notable declines:
- Iván Herrera: Season BA .281 → xBA vs Littell .203 (-78 points), Season K% 20.6% → Arsenal K% 24.6% (+4.0%)
- Lars Nootbaar: Season BA .233 → xBA vs Littell .181 (-52 points), Season K% 21.3% → Arsenal K% 31.6% (+10.3%)
For CIN vs Matthew Liberatore: The Reds lineup averages .260 this season, with a projected .244 xBA against Matthew Liberatore's arsenal. Key performers show significant decreases:
- Elly Cruz: Season BA .272 → xBA vs Liberatore .231 (-41 points), Season K% 26.0% → Arsenal K% 30.3% (+4.3%)
- Miguel Andujar: Season BA .307 → xBA vs Liberatore .279 (-28 points), Season K% 13.6% → Arsenal K% 11.7% (-1.9%)
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards- The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 26.9% vs Zack Littell, up 4.9% from their 22.0% season average. This rise suggests increased strikeout potential for Littell.
- The Reds' projected K-rate is 20.9% vs Matthew Liberatore, a slight increase from their 19.9% season average, indicating moderate strikeout potential.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: TBA Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.What to Bet On
No individual batter meets our strict betting lean criteria of an xBA over .300 with a 20-point boost. Therefore, no batter prop alerts are recommended.
⚡ K Prop Alert: Zack Littell strikeout OVER - Cardinals' K-rate jumps to 26.9% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Both teams face challenges against the opposing pitchers, with significant declines in projected xBA.
- Zack Littell presents a viable strikeout prop opportunity, backed by the Cardinals' increased K-rate against his arsenal.
- Umpire assignment is currently unknown, adding an element of unpredictability to prop bets.
- Overall, the matchup leans more towards pitcher advantages, especially for strikeout props.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cardinals vs Reds game? A: No players meet our strict betting criteria for a batter prop in this matchup.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, leaving us without clarity on umpire tendencies.
Q: What time is the Cardinals vs Reds game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/29 at 06:40PM.
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