Penguins' Road Skid Meets Kings' Weak Penalty Kill in Los Angeles

Los Angeles is a modest favorite at home, -128 against Pittsburgh's +106, and the case for the Kings rests mostly on Pittsburgh's recent form. The Penguins are 5-9-2 and have lost seven straight on the road. The Kings, at 5-7-2, are not much better in the standings, so this is two struggling teams with one clearly shakier than the other.

Pittsburgh's trouble is in its own end. It allows 3.63 goals per game, rank 25, and over its last 10 games that has risen to 4.1. Its team save percentage of 87.3% ranks 29th. Shot volume is not the problem: Pittsburgh allows 27.1 shots on goal per game and holds a 50.2% shot share, rank 12. Its last outing was a 2-6 home loss. The goaltending and finishing at the other end of the shot count are what is failing.

Los Angeles is steadier. It has allowed 3 goals per game over its last 10 and scored 3.3, and its last game was a 7-2 win in which Adrian Kempe had a hat trick and Quinton Byfield scored twice. The big exception is special teams. The Kings' penalty kill is 63%, rank 32, the weakest in the league. Pittsburgh's power play converts at 17.8%, rank 22, so the Penguins have a clear target but not an efficient tool to use against it.

The total of 6.5 is unchanged from the open, with Over -103 and Under -119. Pittsburgh has gone over in 62.5% of its games this season and is on an eight-game over run on the road, while the Kings have gone over in 42.9%. Those trends disagree, and Pittsburgh's defensive numbers sit on the over side. The Kings' recent scoring, 3.3 goals per game over their last 10, adds to that.

The moneyline has barely moved, from Kings -132 to -128. The split is the notable part: 80% of bets are on Los Angeles while 81% of the money is on Pittsburgh. Many small tickets are on the Kings and fewer, larger dollars are on the Penguins. The puck line is Kings -1.5 at +189, with Pittsburgh +1.5 at -237. Los Angeles has covered five straight and is 9-5 against the spread, while Pittsburgh is 8-8. The prices show that a Kings win by two or more is far from assured.

Both teams have injuries. The Kings are without Kevin Fiala and Mats Zuccarello, both week-to-week, and Alex Turcotte has been upgraded to day-to-day. Pittsburgh is missing Elmer Soderblom and Bryan Rust. With only 14 and 16 games played, the season numbers are small samples, and the streaks describe what has happened rather than what will. Neither team has confirmed a starting goalie.