Devils' Shot Dominance Meets Islanders' Goaltending and Penalty Kill on Long Island

New Jersey arrives at UBS Arena with the better record and the better underlying play, but the Islanders have goaltending and penalty-kill numbers that could blunt it. The Devils are 11-5-0 and have won three straight, while the Islanders are 7-6-2 and have lost three straight at home. The central question is whether New Jersey's shot volume turns into goals against a team that allows them sparingly.

The Devils' territorial edge is the clearest gap between the teams. They own a 56.9% shot share, rank 2, taking 32.9 shots on goal per game and allowing 24.9. Over the last 10 games they score 4.1 goals per game and allow 2.5. The weak spots are real, though: a team save percentage of 88.5%, rank 25, and a penalty kill at 67.6%, rank 29.

The Islanders are built the other way. They allow 2.93 goals per game, rank 7, behind a 90.5% team save percentage, rank 4, and a penalty kill at 86.5%, rank 5. Scoring is the problem: 2.87 goals per game, rank 23, with a power play at 14.3%, rank 27. Their shot share is 49.2%, rank 19. The injury list adds to it. Mathew Barzal is on injured reserve with no timetable after practising in a no-contact jersey, and Ryan Pulock is out with an upper-body issue. Three more Islanders are on injured reserve, including a defenseman recovering from knee surgery.

The head-to-head record favours New York. The Islanders won all three regular-season meetings: 9-0 on January 7, 3-1 on February 6 and 6-0 on October 3. The Devils won two preseason games, 2-1 and 4-1, but those carry little weight.

The market sides with New Jersey at -148, with the Islanders at +124. That price is essentially unchanged from the open. Support is lopsided: 93% of bets and 99% of money are on the Devils, and the price did not move with it. On the puck line, the Islanders at +1.5 cost -208 and the Devils at -1.5 pay +169. The total is 5.5, unchanged, with the over at -131. That fits the Devils' recent scoring and their five straight overs, though the Islanders have gone over in only 46.7% of their games.

The Devils' form is mixed. They have won three straight overall, but they have lost five straight in-division road games and failed to cover the puck line in four straight such games. Their season mark against the spread is 6-10, against 8-7 for the Islanders. Those are descriptions of what has happened, not predictions.

Overall, the evidence conflicts. Shot share and recent scoring favour New Jersey, while save percentage, penalty kill and the head-to-head results favour New York. The Islanders' injuries and weak offence are a concern for them. Neither team has confirmed a starting goalie.