Utah's Elite Power Play Meets Ottawa's Goaltending Question in an Even Matchup

Two teams with identical 10-6-1 records and the same 61.8% standings points percentage (rank 9 for both) meet in Ottawa. The question is whether Utah's scoring and power play can outweigh its goaltending numbers. Ottawa complicates its own side of that: Linus Ullmark is on injured reserve and is not expected back Saturday.

Utah's case starts on offense. The Mammoth score 3.59 goals per game (rank 9) and own the league's top power play at 38.3% (rank 1), facing an Ottawa penalty kill at 74.2% (rank 21). Utah also holds 54.2% of shots in its games (rank 6), against 49.2% for Ottawa (rank 16). Ottawa's power play converts at 11.9% (rank 29), so special teams point strongly toward Utah.

The Mammoth's weakness is in goal. Their team save percentage is 86.8% (rank 30), they allow 3.47 goals per game (rank 21), and that figure is 4 per game over the last 10. Ottawa's team save percentage is 89.8% (rank 8) and it allows 3.06 per game (rank 10), but Ullmark's absence makes that a harder number to rely on. Ottawa is also without Ridly Greig, Warren Foegele (3-4 weeks) and William Eklund (10-12 weeks after ankle surgery), and it scores 3.18 goals per game (rank 16).

The moneyline is close to a coin flip: Utah Mammoth -118, Ottawa Senators -102. It opened Ottawa -106, Utah -113, so the move toward Utah is small, with Ottawa's implied win probability going from 51.5% to 50.5%. Tickets are roughly even at 48% Ottawa and 52% Utah, but 59% of the money is on Utah against 41% on Ottawa. That is the ordinary direction for a move of this size. The total is 6.5, unchanged from the open, with Over -105 and Under -117. The puck line has Utah -1.5 at +203 and Ottawa +1.5 at -257.

Both teams have struggled against the spread. Utah is 5-12 and has failed to cover nine straight games, five of them on the road. Ottawa is 7-10 and has failed to cover four straight at home. Those runs describe what has happened and do not predict tonight. On totals, 68.8% of Utah's games have gone over, against 41.2% for Ottawa, though Ottawa's last three at home have gone over.

Utah is on two days of rest after a 4-5 road loss, while Ottawa had three days after a 2-1 road win. Utah has won four straight road games following a loss. The two meetings last season split, with Ottawa winning 4-2 on 2025-11-10 and Utah winning 3-1 on 2026-01-08. Kailer Yamamoto and Nate Schmidt are day-to-day for Utah. Neither team has confirmed a starting goalie.